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My boyfriend is starting Forex. I think it’s a “get rich quick scheme”. Please teach me about the reality of it.
Hi. So I like to call myself a big skeptic of all things “get rich quick”. I’ve always hated MLM’s and other sorts of marketing businesses. I’ve seen many people and heard many stories of people losing thousands and I’ve always been super skeptical about them. However, my boyfriend, let’s call him Cody, has become interested in Forex. He has been a partner with Primerica for a while now but hasn’t done anything with that. He is a manager at a gym here and makes decent money from that. He was approached by a friend to start working with Forex. When I heard about this, I was shocked, just because I’ve heard horror stories about Forex. When I look up reviews online, all I see is people losing money. When I spoke to his friend to see what this is all about, all I got was attacked and hated on for being a “non-believer”. He essentially just said that people who lose money are lazy and don’t even try. I am genuinely curious in learning more and want to be more educated in this. From what I’ve read, it depends a lot on gambling and knowing a lot about the craft. Cody is convinced he will earn $40,000 (approximately) by February doing 6% everyday excluding weekends (I have no clue what that means but I know that’s what he’s doing). I want to know if and how this is actually a legit endeavor or if he’s just delusional. Please, no attacks, I want serious, informative answers. Thanks so much. TL;DR: my bf is starting Forex and I think it’s a scam, how legit is it? Edit: I told him that if he actually does make that $40,000, I’ll apologize for my skepticism and not question this typa shit anymore. We’ll see 🤷🏼♀️ Edit: He works all day with no break and gets home at 11-12 and gets EXHAUSTED. He goes to sleep at like 1 every night and spends that free time watching tv. Nothing wrong with that I just don’t see how he has time to do this stuff. From what I’ve gathered, this has to be done in the afternoon and takes a while. Update: So I spoke to him and mentioned all the advice y’all have given me here. He said he is already doing research but he’s down to join an MLM. He says “everything is an MLM, college, businesses, everything”, which is ridiculous to me but ok. I’m scared for him but I guess there’s not much I can do. He’s writing all this advice off as idiots that had a bad experience even though most people here have said that they have had ups and downs. He also says I’m being super negative and the least bit supportive. Idk what to do😕
Repost: it is a shame, got scammed out of $13k usd
Post got deleted due to writing out scammers Instagram and brokerage website. I'm sorry for violating the rules. Got so much support from guys before, you are legends!!!! Post: I'm completely broken. I'm just basically looking for support. I know I'm an idiot, negative comments not going to help at all. Lesson learnt hard, regrets big time. Forex Trading Long story short - invest little, earn big from home doing fuck all, because he will be managing my account. I start with sending my first deposit to " i don't know whos" wallet, he will deposit that to the brokerage website and after 7 days, big profits promised. Everything were through bitcoins. This scum, he had so legitimate stories and proofs of payments to other "clients" so it all looked so real. Thats what got my silly mind into it. In overall, i think this whole account is fake, but not sure. Dont know nothing much about bitcoin, tho i know its security and secrecy. Im not getting back that money. I just need to move on with my life. I just needed to write this. Stay safe and be careful.
Hello!! So I have a really good friend who is very irresponsible and waste her money on weed and other shit when she doesn’t have the funds and if we ever go out to eat she says “can you pay for me? I’ll pay you back!” And she never does and I don’t hound her on it because I’d never want my friend to go hungry. So I work full time hours and I hate it but I’m making pretty good money and she didn’t want to work because she thinks she’ll get rich in some trading FOREX thing she’s been working on but it’s not really going anywhere. Earlier today she asked to barrow $20 for gas (which I don’t know is the truth) and I just got some repairs done on my car and I’m going on a trip tomorrow so I told her I don’t really have extra funds to lend, bc it’s true but i also feel bad because I’m going on a trip and I can’t even let her barrow money?? And I’m afraid she’ll see that and look at it negatively But also I don’t know if she would even pay me back. She also barrows money from her mom a lot so I don’t know if maybe she has narrowed too much and her mom said no first or what. I feel bad , I feel privileged but I also feel right to be because I work hard for my own money 9hrs a day at a job that she acts like she’s too good for. ALSO I texted back that I couldn’t bc I’m low on funds almost immediately explaining to her I had just had some repairs done and I have yet to get a response back... it’s been 2 hrs OKAY UPDATE: I just talked to my other friend in our friend group and apparently my ‘good friend’ stopped by her apartment to grab the rig so she can go smoke w her boyfriend— who last I knew she broke up w . I knew it was for something dumb like weed and I feel like an IDIOT... please give me advice on what to say, it’s her bday in a couple days and I don’t think I want to go anymore.
Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)
Hello, dummies It's your old pal, Fuzzy. As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great. What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. Idomybit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post. That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way. We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps. Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy. TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle. Ready? Let's get started. 1.The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows: Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself. Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part. You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus. That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it. Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets? 2. A Hedging Taxonomy The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now. (i) Swaps A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one. Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered. The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game. I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging. There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested. Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure). (ii) Forwards A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me. Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways. People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances. These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them. (iii) Collars No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray! To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts. (3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years. First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA. Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire. Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking? Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama. Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details. I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here. Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post. *EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
Can someone explain to an idiot (me) how the cost of a trade of CFD, whether it be Forex, oil, crypto etc, is calculated in terms of how much money is required per trade? This is all in a practice account, I just enjoy playing with it. For example the price of Ethereum on T212 is currently around the $311 mark. If I take out the highest quantity of 500, what is the calculation of how much this costs me? I've done so, and the blocked funds in my account are around £6000. I just can't get my head round where £6000 is calculated from 500 units of $311?? Many thanks!
Anyone who fell for the forex trading scam, im wondering specifically what is in it for the scammers? How does it work? I fell for the Cut co scam and I figured out whats going on behind the scenes, or at least I think I did. Those people don’t actually give a shit if you sell the knives or not.. if they wanted to sell knives they would hire real salesman.. they care about the fact that you give them the name, phone number, and email address of everyone that you do the “knife sale demo” to... because they can sell that information to other businesses for tons of money.. that and they just try to get you to push and manipulate friends and family into buying a 1,000 dollar set of fucking knives. At least thats what ive been able to figure out from my one week “working” with them.. So given that information, I just cannot seem to figure out what the “scam” is in this forex bullshit.. because I dont think you do actual presentations where you gather information from idiots.. Forex in itself is a real thing and if you treat it like any other type of investing there is a real way to make money, HOWEVER listening to other 20 year olds tell you about how you can become a millionaire overnight is a pretty great tell that its all bullshit.. So my question is, has anyone been able to figure out whats really going on behind the scenes? Is it market manipulation? (Ie. jordan Belfort type pumping and dumping) Or is it just giving people a program on the trading platform to make halfway decent trades and taking a cut of the money you make?
A person I connected with on Shapr is trying to convince me to 'collaborate' with them on a Forex investment on Binary.com. Basically I fund the project and they trade on my behalf and we split the earnings. They promised a return of at least 5% weekly. We ran a demo account loaded with $10k of virtual money and they have proven themselves able to make money using it. They promised everything will be done through a broker but now are asking for me to basically give them the log in details to the Binary account so they can trade on my behalf. It all strikes me as incredibly fishy. Is this a normal thing to do in Forex or am I just an idiot? If joint investments are done surely they would be done through a joint account. All of my trading experience has been through Crypto currency only making my own investments, so Forex is completely new to me.
I've noticed that about 2,000 people have joined the Forex community in the recent weeks. Has anyone else noticed this? I suspect this is because of the lay offs due to the corona virus, and people are frantically looking for ways to supplement their incomes. While I'm glad that people are trying to better themselves and take control of their financial situations, I have to admit that the daily "newbie" questions are getting quite annoying. And it's not because there are new, inexperienced traders asking for help, but it's because the questions are more-less the same questions. I know there is a pinned "New Traders" section at the top of the thread, but it seems it isn't catching much traction. But first, to the new traders I'd first like to say: Welcome! This will be a tough journey, but it will pay in dividends (not literally). A couple tips before we start: FIRST, see the pinned New Traders section of Forex SECOND, go to babypips and take their FREE courses where you will learn the basics. I never did because I'm an idiot, and it took me many years of trial and error to succeed in this game. Don't be a lemon like me, go to babypips. Now my basics; Always have at least a 1:2 Risk:Reward. Simply put, risk at least $1 for $2. Always set a stop loss and take profit. In the beginning, I find it best to give new traders a black or white, go-or-no-go trading strategy. Trade mechanically. While discretionary trading is profitable, you need years of experience and time in the charts to be good at it. It could be something like, "I only trade low volatility break outs on the 4hr. Any candle below x ATR and I will enter via stop order at the high/low of that candle. My sl will be at the high/low of the entry candle, and I will look to make at least 2 reward on that trade. I will risk 1% per trade, even on demo, and I will trade in the direction of a 10 period moving average" This is a VERY crude strategy, one I just pulled out of my ass, so don't go using it and blowing your accounts! I recommend starting with 1 pair in the beginning, at MOST 3. And I recommend not swapping into different pairs. Keep those 1-3 pairs. Once babypips is completed, demo trade. Put time in the charts and develop a strategy (mechanically, preferably). Your strategy could be as complex or as simple as you like. Simplicity is genius in my opinion, but you do you. I'm not trying to sound like an ass, but everything you really needed to learn you learned from babypips. With that said, DO NOT pay for courses from ANYONE. They will often know the same as you, if not less. In my opinion to be really great in this game you don't need a lot of information., and capitalize on every opportunity. You just need to be really good at one style and max that the hell out. For instance, being really good at low volatility breakouts, and having a system based off that. No amount of schooling (high school, college, or courses via Forex gurus) will make you successful. It's one thing to know a strategy, but to implement it in real time with real consequences is daunting. The only way to conquer this is to simply do it. Trade. Trade with an amount of money you can emotionally and financially afford to lose! I would even recommend starting a live account with $50 and only trading micro lots (0.01) until you become comfortable and your strategy proves successful. This is AFTER demo trading your strategy. Master yourself before you master the markets. Work out. Feed your brain. Get enough sleep. The money you make or lose isn't worth your health. Psychology. In my opinion the best psychology you can have while trading is a form of stoicism. You've placed your trade based off your strategy, you managed your trade based off your strategy, and you risked an amount you've told yourself you were comfortable losing with an account you told yourself you were comfortable blowing, so what's the worry? Why the second guessing? Everyone's heard that story, right? Where a man goes to a successful "guru" and says he wants to be successful. The guru says, "Ok. Show up at the beach this time tomorrow." The man shows up at the beach in a suit and tie, ready for success! The guru tells him to get in the water. Once in, the guru holds the mans head under the water, drowning him. At the last second the guru lets him up and says, "once you want success as much you wanted to breathe, you'll be successful. That's what you need to be like. You need to be willing to do what is necessary and put in the work. It's not easy. You're going to lose money, maybe even blow accounts. You may struggle for years without a return, or even lose money over that time. How bad do you want it success, though? And are you willing to drown to attain it? Best of luck new traders! Experienced traders, please feel free to add things or tell me I'm a goof in the comments.
New to eToro, does anyone know what all the newbie restrictions are and what it takes to remove them ?
I might be an idiot, but as a newbie who answered “never done this before” to all the questions about my experience in trading when opening my account, I find a lot of restrictions on the app. I can’t seem to find any option to leverage anything (not saying I would but ...). Can’t seem to figure how to trade with a CFD (anytime I want to open a trade the app tells me I’m buying the underlying asset). I can’t short anything. I can’t trade commodities or FOREX. I can basically just buy shares. Am I doing something wrong or are these actually the normal restrictions for newbies ? Do these restrictions get lifted progressively based on results/stats ? Or will I have to contact eToro support so they lift them ? And if so, can I do that now or do I need good results on the basic stuff to convince them to take the training wheels off ? Thanks to anyone who can answer.
Repo market/international banking follow-up thread + Google doc
Unsurprisingly, you apes vandalized the page. I'm working on a GitHub now. It's here. Anyone with experience managing a repository, feel free to reach out. Respond to the discussion opened by ctabka to be invited as a collaborator. Alright, guys. Whew, holy shit. I did not expect my post to blow up like that. I woke up this morning to hundreds of messages and thousands of comments. I've been trying to get back to people who've reached out to me and haven't even been able to respond to half of the inquiries posed to me. First off, I'd like to thank you guys for your support and enthusiasm. I still think you're stupid, probably stupider than me, for listening to what I have to say, but I thank you nonetheless. For those of you who had friendly (or really unfriendly) criticism, I appreciate that, too. I don't care if you're trying to hurt my feelings: if you take the time to explain in great detail, even if every word you type is laden with disdain and malicious intent, I'm oblivious enough to social cues that I'm only going to distill raw information from what you write to me. I don't care if you're a dick about it. Educate me bby. So, I've fielded a metric fuckton of requests to start a google doc so that users can collaborate on research. I think this is a fantastic idea. This sub is full of some really fucking smart people, even if they cosplay as full-blown retards half the time. I think that if the collective autism of this sub were harnessed, it could be very productive in identifying weaknesses in the global banking system. Wisdom of the unwashed masses, and all that. That said, I've fielded a metric fuckton of requests. I want this process to be as orderly as possible. That doesn't mean a discord channel that's getting spammed 30 times a second with sToNkS gO uP memes. For that reason, I'm opening up these docs generally to WSB (and hoping that they don't get fucking vandalized) as a sort of repository for leads or analyses anyone here would like to contribute. Additionally, I'm trying to identify experienced traders or economics-minded individuals who would like to trawl through the data that the sub contributes and parse it. This means financial analysts, bankers, macroeconomists, experts on fiscal policy, forex and commodity traders, and data analysts/technical analysts. Additionally, I think we might need a lawyer as well. It wouldn't hurt. If you've got this experience, please hit me up in chat and we can talk further about goals and divisions of labor. If you're interested in curating this document, please drop me a chat. I might not have the time to keep it clean and organized, and delegating this responsibility would be really helpful. Experience with GitHub will be prioritized. Lastly, I really want to make one thing clear: I have not yet recommended any tickers or options yet. I've disclosed my positions, but I'm an idiot. Don't be like me. My take on this could all be wrong. That's why I'm trying to democratize this research. I'm trying my best to recruit as much knowledge and experience as I can to back any DD before I endorse any positions. That way, if you lose money, the blame is distributed. I understand that I may have glossed over nuances, or misunderstood certain aspects of the shadow banking system or repo market in my prior post. Some of these mistakes have been brought to my attention with varying degrees of nastiness. Thank you. I don't want to mislead or misinform anyone. Please, just keep that in mind before you launch into a vitriolic polemic. But do keep the constructive criticism coming. It's been very... constructive. Cheers, and, again, thank you all for your knowledge and contributions and enthusiasm. Stay autistic. Go off. Do your worst.
As we have been told multiple times, the difference between a High Silver and low Gold (or High gold and early Named) is the gear and the crucible. Well, Erin has been through a "few" crucibles so far and that has never been the limiting factor for her. It has been her "gear"* that has been lagging behind. It is a joy to finally see her have the time, means and the capability to intentionally gear up for the challenges. *Now, I use the word "Gear" as a veeeeeeery broad catch-all term when talking about our lady of Chaos and Nonconformity as a rough "Gear" list of hers can start with her apron, masterwork knife and acid jars; it can meander through things like "enough ambient mana storage to mimic a RTS Magic Defense Tower", "A non borked and 100% working WH40k Assault Teleportarium Complex" and end in entries like "4+ Gold Rank Teams", "60.000+ Cave Goblins", "A Reinforced Assault Platoon of Antinium" and so on. Anyway, the following as a rough list of what Erin has access to as her arsenal without asking from someone else right now;
The Masterwork Mundane Knife,
The Blue Fruit Cores,
The Garden, (And Chocolate, And Faerie Flowers, And sugar and so on all included.)
The Alchemy Lab (insert [building in progress!] sound effect here),
The Theater V1,
The Ambient Mana Storage
The Birdtower (insert [building in progress!] sound effect here),
The potions from Saliss,
Aside from these, there is also the Stables planned and in the pipeline for the primaries list. And Magnolia's idiot Earthers... not that I can think any use for most of them except possibly Imani. The secondary and tertiary lists are quite a bit larger and contains other resources Erin can utilize with a small heads up time or prep; like the Strongheart Farm, The Winstram Trio, Saliss, Grimalkin, Liscor's 4th Company, Antinium and so on but I will try to avoid discussing them here to keep the focus tight. Now, with all the preliminary word salad out of the way, what else do you think would a good option for Erin to expand and glomp on to increase her arsenal/repertoire? Personally, Erin being Erin, I feel the first option to go for is the local craftsmen;
Closer ties with Ushel the [Fermenter] and Ediya the [Runecrafter] like how she started with Octavia might bring unexpected boons for Erin and the Inn.
Quite a few ways down the line but after a reliable contact with Magnolia is established and the H'otel wing is finally built, renting a team of hospitality specialists from Magnolia to work it might be a multiple birds with one stone type deal.
Another possible upgrade is setting up a combination Blacksmith / Tinkerer's / Farrier's Shop on the premises.Sure, none are full time presences but considering what half an hour of Pelt or Maughin's jamming in the forge can produce when they are in the mood, it feels criminal not to present them with the possibility. Nevermind that Inn would also benefit from a firekeepetinkerer who would/could fill the odd handyman (HandyAntinium?) needs now and then.
More seeds! MORE SEEDS!
More "outbuildings". I have the sneaking suspicion that IF Erin acquires other specialized outbuildings in other cities and establishes with it using the magical door, like a "Grand Theater" in Invirsil forex, there is a better than even chance of the INN glomping on the said building and somehow permanently "tieing" the 2 buildings together while making things like space/distance/time cry and curl up in a corner.
Ashfire Bee Apiary! (Totally didn't steal this one from Redhood39!)
[Instant Legolas] and [Compound] upgraded heavy/siege bows for the BirdTowers (IntermittentSuccess)
Some non-chess games to her inn (or the yard outside) for people to play like darts, shuffleboard, billiards/pool/snooker, foosball, cornhole, (giant) jenga, kubb, crokinole, bocce ball, horseshoes, ladder toss, croquet, twister, or even trivia nights (though someone else would need to think up the questions). Along with this she needs to set up a league for chess and whatever other games she adds. (Stylemys)
Waterworks; pool / spa / sauna
Expand the Gym V1 to a full on [Temple of The Lift], A Colosseum like area for sparing, A Weights Section, The above mentioned Pool, Coaches with healing magics (i.e. Grimalkin's Apprentices) (Gamer8123)
A [(Hedge)Mage Tower] of some sorts for the visiting and employee Mages; Internal and Local Broadcasts, A Library, Workshops that can be rented...
6 [Birdwatcher Towers] and 1 [War Tower] with ziplines and other parts for a certain Archer
A Stage on top of the central [War Tower] for a certain [SoulBard] to Hammer On Lightning and Strum Thunder.
A Cold Room and a Freezer Room.
Some Boomtree Barks next winter? Are there any left? (Gamer8123)
Welp!, these are the few things I feel appropriate for Erin to add to her arsenal. What are your thoughts? Guesses? Suggestions? [Edited] to add the Apiary and the Siege Bow.
Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".
Fellow idiots, I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse. TL;DR at the bottom. Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too. Point 2:The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them. Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10. Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth.. Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point. Point 6:Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment. Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too. Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point. Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now? Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment. Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid. TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing. Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
US treasuries still have room to run (before the autists say that's not yolo enough you could trade OTM calls on UST-linked ETFs, US govvie futures for gainz)
Sell SPX companies with big supply chain exposure and heavy cost of capital, buy their competitors without these features.
Open up apparel factories in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, and sell to the US.
Buy soybeans assuming farmers get a bailout from US
I am sure there are plenty of China based ETFs which could be played, DYOR.
Short any US listed company with mainland China domicile. If shit REALLY hits the fan between US/China, there are levers that US Govt. can pull to fuck them.
A Short Story that Describes Imaginary Events and People of Worldwide Calamities and the Aftermath (the 2nd Edition)
The following story, all names, characters, and incidents portrayed in this post are fictitious. No identification with actual persons (living or deceased), places, buildings, and products is intended or should be inferred. However, the LINKS to real-life events and inspiring sources are placed here and there throughout the story. -------- Truth is the Only Light -------- INTRO ☞ [As of 2019] there are plenty of reasons to think the Chinese system will implode spectacularly without Japanese feeling the need to do a thing. — Peter Zaihan, Disunited Nations (Mar 03, 2020) It's apparent that two nations have been engaged in a high-stakes military & economy arms race. The current US admin has been hitting China with waves of tariffs, but that was merely a small part of what's actually going on.         On Oct 11, 2019, when they reached a tentative agreement for the first phase of a trade deal, the fact that China made the concession actually made my jaw drop. From where I sit, it was a worrisome scene. Aren't people saying, when challenging situations are bottled up, they will just grow and mutate into another terrible complications? Admittedly I was not certain how they are going to adhere to the agreement: It left most of the US tariffs (on China's exports) in place, and at the same time, came with an additional USD $200 Billion burden for China over the next two years. This agreement might seem a bit insignificant, but now China would need to purchase almost twice the size of the US products & services they did before the trade war began. With their current economic climate? I murmured, "No way." While watching Trump brag and boast around with said agreement, I expected China would soon come out and fling some improvised excuses in order to delay the document-signing process. It wouldn't be their first time. More importantly, even if China does so, there wouldn't be many (real) counterattack options left for the Trump admin during this year, the US presidential election year. Then, on Jan 16, 2020, the world’s two largest economies actually signed a partial trade agreement aimed at putting the brakes on an 18-month trade war. China would almost surely not sit down but come back to bite, I thought. Enter the worldwide chaos following so called the COVID-19 outbreak. -------- BACKGROUND ☞ Globalists have been heavily investing in China's economy and its components overseas. • Here are a couple of well known names: the Great Old One; George Soros; Koos Bekker; and Bill Gates. • For the sake of convenience, from here on, let's call these globalists, who are foreign investors in China's top tier state-owned/sponsored/controlled enterprises, Team-Z. • Team-Z has adopted big time lackeys like Henry Kissinger or small time ones like Larry Summers, Stephen Hadley, or Bill Browder as matchmakers to court Team-Z for China's top tier enterprises. When Israel's highest echelons chimed in, it has been through Israeli IT companies and the BRI projects. • Naturally, multinational investment banks have also been employed; such as Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), UBS Group AG (formerly Union Bank of Switzerland), Blackstone Group, Canaccord Genuity, BlackRock, Hermitage, or Mirae Asset. ☞ Note: The Great Old One didn't use any matchmakers, something peasants would need. Because the Great Old One's power level is over 9000. • China's Shanghai clique used to keep the nation's state-sponsored enterprises under their firm grip: Enterprises such as Alibaba Group, Tencent, Baidu, Wanda Group, HNA Group, Anbang Group, Evergrande Group, CEFC Energy and Huawei, all of which Team-Z has massively invested in. • Here is how Shanghai clique and Team-Z, esp. Bill Gates, started to get together:[LINK] • However, in the name of anti-corruption campaign, Xi Jinping & his Princelings have been taking those businesses away from Shanghai clique's hand, and transforming those state-sponsored private enterprises into the state-owned enterprises, declaring the 國進民退 movement. • Slaying Shanghai clique's control =       • 國進民退 + Slaying Shanghai clique's control = [A] [B] [C] • Xi's reign didn't arrive today without challenges though: the BRI projects' poor outcome has frustrated Israel's great expectations. And since the US-China trade war has started, the problems of China's economic systems started to surface, not to mention China's economy has long been decaying. • Coupled with the US-China trade war, the current US admin has been trying to block Huawei from accessing the international financial systems that the US can influence, as well as the US banking systems. This is a good time to remind you again that Bill Gates has had a very close-knit relationship with Huawei. -------- TRADE WAR & INTERNET-BASED COMPANIES ☞ It's the trade war, but why were internet-based companies such as Tencent and Baidu suffering losses? Answer: The state-sponsored companies like Tencent, Baidu, or Huawei have heavily invested in international trade and commodity markets, which are easily influenced by aspects that IMF interest rates, the US sanctions, or trade war can create. Example: Let's say, Tencent invests in a Tehran-based ride-hailing company. Then, through said ride-hailing company, Tencent invests in Iran's petroleum industry. Now, China's most valuable IT company is in international petrochemical trade. The business is going to make great strides until the US imposes trade embargoes oand economic sanctions against Iran. -------- TL;DR China's economy going down = Team-Z losing an astronomical amount of money. ★ Wednesday, Sep 26, 2018 ★ "Gentlemen, you guys might want to do something before it's too bloody late, no? Hisspeechlast night was .... (sniggers) Mr. Gates, now is as good a time as any. Mr.Soros, hm, don't look at melikethat." ".... But," "Yes, Mr. Soros, yourHNAis going down, too. .... Ah,Schwarzmanxiansheng, we're very sorry to learn about Blackstone'sIran&SinopecChinasituation. So, we're guessing, you'd be happy to join Mr. Gates's operation, yes? Of course, We already contactedKissingerxiansheng. ....Okaythen,Gentlemen?" • Now you can take a guess why George Soros has recently been sending out confusing messages regarding Xi Jinping. • Wait, how about Wuhan Institute of Virology? Doesn't this story concern the COVID-19 outbreak? Is the Wuhan Institute also associated with Shanghai clique? Yes, indeed. Here's How Wuhan Institute of Virology and Shanghai Clique are related:[LINK] -------- EIGHT OBJECTIVES ☞ Calling for the tide to be turned, Team-Z and Shanghai clique started to devise the plan. The objectives are: ① By shutting down international trade, crashing world economy, and exploiting its aftermath, the plan should produce an outcome letting Team-Z earn back their loss from the trade war & the US sanctions, and collect additional profits from China's BRI projects & stock markets worldwide, including the US stock markets. • Don't forget this: This point number ① also concerns the developing nations on the BRI with the large deposits of natural resources that Team-Z has invested in through China. If everything comes together nicely, Team-Z will pick up trillions of dollars from those nations alone as if they are light as a feather. Ironically this will reinforce the BRI project governance and mitigate fraud & corruption risks inherent to the international development projects. ② By utilizing the aftermath in the US, a new US administration consisted of pro-Beijing personnels should be fostered at the 2020 election. In a worst-case scenario, the aftermath should be abused enough to make Robert Lighthizer to leave the admin. Mr. Mnuchin could stay. ③ Sometime next year, the phase one trade deal must be reassessed with the new US admin. The reassessment should help China take the upper-hand at the second phase trade talk. ④ The pandemic crisis should yield a situation which allows China to delay the payments for its state-firm offshore debts. With the point number ①, this will give China a breathing room to manage its steadily-fallen forex reserves. ⑤ Since their current turf (in China) is education industry & medical science industry, Shanghai clique will have no issue with earning hefty profits by managing China's export of medical equipments & health care products which can be supplied worldwide mainly by China. People in the west will bent the knees for the clique's support. ☞ Regarding Jiang Zemin's son and medical science industry in China [LINK] ⑥ The outcome should weaken Xi & his Princelings' political power considerably in favour of Shanghai clique & Team-Z. This will let Jiang's Shanghai clique (A) reclaim some of political status & business interest controls they have lost to Xi & his Princelings. • And once this point number ⑥, with the point number ② , is realized, it would be much easier for the clique to (B) recover their huge assets hidden overseas that the current US admin or Xi & his Princelings have frozen. ⑦ Combining good old bribery with sex, the outcome should support China to re-secure control over the US governors. Once the plan is executed successfully, those governors would desperately need solutions to local economic problems and unemployment. ⑧ Lastly, implementing an e-ID system in the US similar to Beijing's Alipay and WeChat could be the cherry on top of the operation's entire outcomes. Who's supporting such a system worldwide? None other than Microsoft and Rockefeller Foundation. ಠ_ಠ -------- OLD COMRADE BECOMES A NEW RECRUIT ☞ They were afraid more talents were needed. The main target was the world’s largest economy with the most powerful military capability, after all. They ended up asking Mr. Fridman to see Lord Putin about that. The old Vova was going through a lot nowadays, people said. It could be because his nation's energy business to Europeseems to be hitting wall after wall. He is said to have enough on his plate with no end in sight, so maybe he'll join. ★ Monday, Jan 15, 2018 ★ "(pours a drink for himself) I know, but. ... What would happen if Bashar falls? How long you think you can keep it up? .... Erdogan is many things (sniggers) but he's nevergentle. (sips his drink slowly) WhenBenji'sEastMed Pipeline starts to actively compete, then what? They got the Chinamoneynow. ....Vagitand his buddies will be very unhappy. You know that. Not great, Vova." "...." "Ah, you mean what are we going to do? Hm? Hm. I'll tell you what we're going to do. This time, we're going to bankrupt the US shale gas sector. Then, of course, we can maybe convince Benji to take their time with the pipeline. Perhaps for good. (sips his drink slowly) Don't worry, Vova, It'll work. You worry too much. We'll come out the other side stronger." "So, how long until they set it off? "Hahaa, yes. They'll soon put all things in place. While marching in place, they'll play the tune a couple of months before the next sochelnik." "Nearly 20 months to brace things here, then?" "(nod slowly in happiness) Hm. Оторви́сь там, оттопы́рься, Vova" -------- USEFUL IDIOTS ☞ When the directive came, these idiots answered claiming they would be gladly "on it." All in the name of rejuvenating China's economy without grasping the real objective prevailing throughout the entire operation. Thing is, they would never realize what they are to Team-Z & their Asian overlord until it’s too late. Who are they? It's A and B, not A or B: (A) the American corporations that are too big to fail and have suffered a considerable loss because of the US-China trade war. Among those corporations, (B) the ones that have been structured with massive interest-profit relationships in/with China. "We need China in order for the US as a nation to continue being prosper," they've been shouting. No surprise there, because they've enjoyed the strides of extraordinary profits over the years while the US middle class has continued to shrink. But, in 2019 when China's stock markets nosedived for the first time since 2015 and China's authorities in financial stability & resiliency fumbled their response; it wiped that smile off their face. Still, they'll keep behaving not to offend their Asian overlord, nonetheless. -------- PERFECT PLAN ☞ Many crucial components had to come into play all at once in order to cause World War I. If one of the components were missing or different, it is unlikely that the World War I as we know of could be produced. ① The US in 2019: Overbought bubbles + Over borrowed corporations ② The US in 2020: It's an Election Year. ③ Russia has been dumping US Treasuries for the past few years. ④ Russia has been hoarding golds as if they were recreating Inca Empire. ⑤ China in 2019: Immense & long term financial troubles has started to surface. ⑥ China in 2020: The phase-one deal has been signed; leaving most of tariffs on China intact and adding another $200 Billion burden for China. ⑦ Team-Z sets up a situation in the US where some event(s) would freeze the US supply chains & demand for the next three to ten months. • Just like the 9/11, the event will be initiated at the clique's own region. However, unlike in China, the US will report multiple epicentres simultaneously. • And the CDC and the US medical task force will carry on with a number of sabotage acts, to secure enough time for the infected yet untested in those US epicentres to spread plenty.    • Here's a feasible timeline of the operation. ⑧ Then, the BOOM: Team-Z (a) manipulates the markets to make sure MM will have liquidity concerns (b) when they need it most. The (c) bottomed out oil price will be an enforcement, which will also wreck the US energy sector as a kicker. The (d) WHO will also join as a disinformation campaign office. • Then a couple of big name investment managers will lead a movement that (will try to) bring back foreign money back to China.   • Meanwhile, in US, the disinformation campaign will continue to be pushed until the second wave of attack arrives. -------- MEASURABLE SHORT-TERM OUTCOME ☞ We're now going through World War III. The global structure laid down by World War II had been shaken by globalization and the rise of China. This pandemic event will shock the structure further. Human history will be divided into Before 2021 and After 2021. ① Outcome pt. 1: Immediate Aftermath [pt.1] [pt.2] ② Outcome pt. 2: The US economy goes deep dive along with world economy, and the only thing Team-Z has to do is to exploit the aftermath which has been thoroughly calculated and eagerly anticipated. — Favoured assessment: There won't be a V curve ever, unless drastic measures taken within the timeframe of four months. Unprecedented market crash, the rapid unemployment acceleration because of the supply-chain shut down, and the near-death security which in turn forces consumer confidence to plummet. We're looking at a super long L shape curve unless the US prepares fast for the second wave of their asymmetric warfare. ③ Outcome pt. 3: Arguably the most important outcome. — Because of the unprecedented shutdown of international trade, the nations heavily rely on exporting natural resources will face the extreme financial threats. What if some of those are emerging markets AND massively in debt to China? What do you think China would do to said nations while the aftermath is hitting the globe hard? [PDF] Something comparable to Latin American Debt Crisis will happen. ④ Outcome pt. 4: Not that significant compared to the others but still notable outcome. — The world will need Shanghai clique's help to get medical products and equipments. -------- WHAT'S NEXT? ☞ Several analysts have discussed off the record that next it'd be a proxy warfare not using armed conflicts but with spreading a galaxy of counterfeit-currency across every possible channels. Coincidently, on Dec 13, 2017, Business Insider reported in an article "A $100 counterfeit 'supernote' found in South Korea could have been made in North Korea" that:
"It was the first of a new kind of supernote ever found in the world," Lee Ho-Joong, head of KEB Hana Bank's anti-counterfeit centre told Agence France-Presse.
Reporting the same news, The Telegraph published an article on Dec 11, 2017:
"It seems that whoever printed these supernotes has the facilities and high level of technology matching that of a government", said Lee Ho-jung, a bank spokesman from KEB Hana Bank in South Korea. "They are made with special ink that changes colour depending on the angle, patterned paper and Intaglio printing that gives texture to the surface of a note".
So here it is, three more days and October begins, which marks one year of trading for me. I figured I would contribute to the forum and share some of my experience, a little about me, and what I've learned so far. Whoever wants to listen, that's great. This might get long so buckle up.. Three years ago, I was visiting Toronto. I don't get out much, but my roommate at the time travels there occasionally. He asked everyone at our place if we wanted to come along for a weekend. My roommate has an uncle that lives there and we didn't have to worry about a hotel because his uncle owns a small house that's unlived in which we could stay at. I was the only one to go with. Anyways, we walk around the city, seeing the sights and whatnot. My friend says to me "where next?" "I don't know, you're the tour guide" "We can go check out Bay Street" "what's 'Bay Street?'" "It's like the Canadian Wall street! If you haven't seen it you gotta see it!" Walking along Bay, I admire all the nice buildings and architecture, everything seems larger than life to me. I love things like that. The huge granite facades with intricate designs and towering pillars to make you think, How the fuck did they make that? My attention pivots to a man walking on the sidewalk opposite us. His gait stood out among everyone, he walked with such a purpose.. He laughed into the cell phone to his ear. In the elbow-shoving city environment, he moved with a stride that exuded a power which not only commanded respect, but assumed it. I bet HE can get a text back, hell he's probably got girls waiting on him. This dude was dressed to kill, a navy suit that you could just tell from across the street was way out of my budget, it was a nice fucking suit. I want that. His life, across the street, seemed a world a way from my own. I've worn a suit maybe twice in my life. For my first communion, it was too big for me, I was eleven or whatever so who gives a shit, right? I'm positive I looked ridiculous. The other time? I can't remember. I want that. I want the suit. I want the wealth, the independence.I want the respect and power, and I don't give a shit what anyone thinks about it. Cue self doubt. Well, He's probably some rich banker's son. That's a world you're born into. I don't know shit about it. \sigh* keep walking..* A year later, I'm visiting my parents at their house, they live an hour away from my place. My dad is back from Tennessee, his engineering job was laying people off and he got canned... Or he saw the end was near and just left... I don't know, hard to pay attention to the guy honestly because he kind of just drones on and on. ("Wait, so your mom lives in Michigan, but your dad moved to Tennessee... for a job?" Yea man, I don't fucking know, not going to touch on that one.) The whole project was a shit show that was doomed to never get done, the way he tells it. And he's obviously jaded from multiple similar experiences at other life-sucking engineer jobs. My mom is a retired nurse practitioner who no longer works because of her illness. I ask him what he's doing for work now and he tells me he trades stocks from home. I didn't even know you could do that. I didn't know "trading" was a thing. I thought you just invest and hope for the best. "Oh that's cool, how much money do you need to do that?" "Ehh, most say you need at least $25,000 as a minimum" "Oh... guess I can't do that..." Six months later, I get a call and it's my dad. We talk a little about whatever. Off topic, he starts asking if I'm happy doing what I'm doing (I was a painter, commercial and residential) I tell him yes but it's kind of a pain in the ass and I don't see it as a long term thing. Then he gets around to asking if I'd like to come work with him. He basically pitches it to me. I'm not one to be sold on something, I'm always skeptical. So I ask all the questions that any rational person would ask and he just swats them away with reassuring phrases. He was real confident about it. But basically he says for this to work, I have to quit my job and move back home so he can teach me how to trade and be by my side so I don't do anything stupid. "My Name, you can make so much money." I say that I can't raise the $25,000 because I'm not far above just living paycheck to paycheck. "I can help you out with that." Wow, okay, well... let me think about it. My "maybe" very soon turned into a "definitely." So over the next six months, I continue to work my day job painting, and I try to save up what I could for the transition (it wasn't a whole lot, I sucked at saving. I was great at spending though!). My dad gives me a book on day trading (which I will mention later) and I teach myself what I can about the stock market using Investopedia. Also in the meantime, my dad sends me encouraging emails. He tells me to think of an annual income I would like to make as a trader, and used "more than $100,000 but less than a million" as a guideline. He tells me about stocks that he traded that day or just ones that moved and describes the basic price action and the prices to buy and sell at. Basically saying "if you bought X amount of shares here and sold it at X price here, you could make a quick 500 bucks!" I then use a trading sim to trade those symbols and try to emulate what he says. Piece of cake. ;) Wow, that's way more than what I make in a day. He tells me not to tell anyone about my trading because most people just think it's gambling. "Don't tell your Mom either." He says most people who try this fail because they don't know how to stop out and take a loss. He talks about how every day he was in a popular chatroom, some noob would say something like, "Hey guys, I bought at X price (high of day or thereabout), my account is down 80% .. uhh I'm waiting for it to come back to my entry price.. what do I do??" Well shit, I'm not that fucking dumb. If that's all it takes to make it is to buy low, sell high, and always respect a stop then I'll be fantastic. By the end of September, I was very determined. I had been looking forward everyday to quitting my painting job because while it used to be something I loved, it was just sucking the life out of me at this point. Especially working commercial, you just get worked like a dog. I wasn't living up to my potential with that job and I felt awful for it every minute of every day. I knew that I needed a job where I could use my brain instead of slaving my body to fulfill someone else's dream. "Someone's gotta put gas in the boss's boat" That's a line my buddy once said that he probably doesn't know sticks with me to this day. It ain't me. So now it was October 2018, and I'm back living with Mom n' Pops. I was so determined that on my last day of work I gave away all of my painting tools to my buddy like, "here, I don't need this shit." Moving out of my rental was easy because I don't own much, 'can't take it with ya.' Excited for the future I now spend my days bundled up in winter wear in the cold air of our hoarder-like basement with a space heater at my feet. My laptop connected to a TV monitor, I'm looking at stocks next to my dad and his screens in his cluttered corner. Our Trading Dungeon. I don't trade any money, (I wasn't aware of any real-time sim programs) I just watch and learn from my dad. Now you've got to keep in mind, and look at a chart of the S&P, this is right at the beginning of Oct '18, I came in right at the market top. Right at the start of the shit-show. For the next three or four weeks, I watch my dad pretty much scratch on every trade, taking small loss after small loss, and cursing under his breath at the screen. Click. "dammit." Click. "shit." Click. Click. "you fuck." Click. This gets really fucking annoying as time goes on, for weeks, and I get this attitude like ugh, just let me do it. I'll make us some fucking money. So I convince him to let me start trading live. I didn't know anything about brokers so I set up an account using his broker, which was Fidelity. It was a pain and I had to jump through a lot of hoops to be able to day trade with this broker. I actually had to make a joint account with my dad as I couldn't get approved for margin because my credit score is shit (never owned a credit card) and my net worth, not much. Anyways, they straight up discourage day trading and I get all kinds of warning messages with big red letters that made me shit myself like oooaaahhh what the fuck did I do now. Did I forget to close a position?? Did I fat finger an order? Am I now in debt for thousands of dollars to Fidelity?? They're going to come after me like they came after Madoff. Even after you are approved for PDT you still get these warning messages in your account. Some would say if I didn't comply with "whatever rule" they'd even suspend my account for 60 days. It was ridiculous, hard to describe because it doesn't make sense, and it took the support guy on the phone a good 20 minutes to explain it to me. Basically I got the answer "yea it's all good, you did nothing wrong. As long as you have the cash in your account to cover whatever the trade balance was" So I just kept getting these warnings that I had to ignore everyday. I hate Fidelity. My fist day trading, I made a few so-so trades and then I got impatient. I saw YECO breaking out and I chased, soon realized I chased, so I got out. -$500. Shit, I have to make that back, I don't want my dad to see this. Got back in. Shit. -$400. So my first day trading, I lost $900. My dumbass was using market orders so that sure didn't help. I reeled the risk back and traded more proper position size for a while, but the commissions for a round trip are $10, so taking six trades per day, I'm losing $60 at a minimum on top of my losing trades. Quickly I realized I didn't know what the hell I was doing. What about my dad? Does HE know? One day, in the trading dungeon, I was frustrated with the experience I'd been having and just feeling lost overall. I asked him. "So, are you consistently profitable?" "mmm... I do alright." "Yea but like, are you consistently profitable over time?" ......................... "I do alright." Silence. "Do you know any consistently profitable traders?" "Well the one who wrote that book I gave you, Tina Turner.. umm and there's Ross Cameron" ...................... "So you don't know any consistently profitable traders, personally.. People who are not trying to sell you something?" "no." ................... Holy fucking shit, what did this idiot get me into. He can't even say it to my face and admit it. This entire life decision, quitting my job, leaving my rental, moving from my city to back home, giving shit away, it all relied on that. I was supposed to be an apprentice to a consistently profitable day trader who trades for a living. It was so assumed, that I never even thought to ask! Why would you tell your son to quit his job for something that you yourself cannot do? Is this all a scam? Did my dad get sold a DREAM? Did I buy into some kind of ponzi scheme? How many of those winning trades he showed me did he actually take?Are there ANY consistently profitable DAY TRADERS who TRADE FOR A LIVING?Why do 90% fail? Is it because the other 10% are scamming the rest in some way? Completely lost, I just had no clue what was what. If I was going to succeed at this, if it was even possible to succeed at this, it was entirely up to me. I had to figure it out. I still remember the feeling like an overwhelming, crushing weight on me as it all sunk in. This is going to be a big deal.. I'm not the type to give up though. In that moment, I said to myself, I'm going to fucking win at this. I don't know if this is possible, but I'm going to find out. I cannot say with certainty that I will succeed, but no matter what, I will not give up. I'm going to give all of myself to this. I will find the truth. It was a deep moment for me. I don't like getting on my soapbox, but when I said those things, I meant it. I really, really meant it. I still do, and I still will. Now it might seem like I'm being hard on my dad. He has done a lot for me and I am very grateful for that. We're sarcastic as hell to each other, I love the bastard. Hell, I wouldn't have the opportunity to trade at all if not for him. But maybe you can also understand how overwhelmed I felt at that time. Not on purpose, of course he means well. But I am not a trusting person at all and I was willing to put trust into him after all the convincing and was very disappointed when I witnessed the reality of the situation. I would have structured this transition to trading differently, you don't just quit your job and start trading. Nobody was there to tell me that! I was told quite the opposite. I'm glad it happened anyway, so fuck it. I heard Kevin O'Leary once say, "If I knew in the beginning how difficult starting a business was, I don't know that I ever would've started." This applies very much to my experience. So what did I do? Well like everyone I read and read and Googled and Youtube'd my ass off. I sure as hell didn't pay for a course because I didn't have the money and I'm like 99% sure I would be disappointed by whatever they were teaching as pretty much everything can be found online or in books for cheap or free. Also I discovered Thinkorswim and I used that to sim trade in real-time for three months. This is way the hell different than going on a sim at 5x speed and just clicking a few buy and sell buttons. Lol, useless. When you sim trade in real-time you're forced to have a routine, and you're forced to experience missing trades with no chance to rewind or skip the boring parts. That's a step up because you're "in it". I also traded real money too, made some, lost more than I made. went back to sim. Traded live again, made some but lost more, fell back to PDT. Dad fronted me more cash. This has happened a few times. He's dug me out of some holes because he believes in me. I'm fortunate. Oh yeah, about that book my dad gave me. It's called A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online by Toni Turner. This book... is shit. This was supposed to be my framework for how to trade and I swear it's like literally nothing in this book fucking works lol. I could tell this pretty early on, intuitively, just by looking at charts. It's basically a buy-the-breakout type strategy, if you want to call it a strategy. No real methodology to anything just vague crap and showing you cherry-picked charts with entries that are way too late. With experience in the markets you will eventually come to find that MOST BREAKOUTS FAIL. It talks about support/resistance lines and describes them as, "picture throwing a ball down at the floor, it bounces up and then it bounces down off the ceiling, then back up." So many asinine assumptions. These ideas are a text book way of how to trade like dumb money. Don't get me wrong, these trades can work but you need to be able to identify the setups which are more probable and identify reasons not to take others. So I basically had to un-learn all that shit. Present day, I have a routine in place. I'm out of the dungeon and trade by myself in my room. I trade with a discount broker that is catered to day traders and doesn't rape me on commissions. My mornings have a framework for analyzing the news and economic events of the particular day, I journal so that I can recognize what I'm doing right and where I need to improve. I record my screens for later review to improve my tape reading skills. I am actually tracking my trades now and doing backtesting in equities as well as forex. I'm not a fast reader but I do read a lot, as much as I can. So far I have read about 17-18 books on trading and psychology. I've definitely got a lot more skilled at trading. As of yet I am not net profitable. Writing that sounds like selling myself short though, honestly. Because a lot of my trades are very good and are executed well. I have talent. However, lesser quality trades and trades which are inappropriately sized/ attempted too many times bring down that P/L. I'm not the type of trader to ignore a stop, I'm more the trader that just widdles their account down with small losses. I trade live because at this point, sim has lost its value, live trading is the ultimate teacher. So I do trade live but I just don't go big like I did before, I keep it small. I could show you trades that I did great on and make people think I'm killing it but I really just don't need the validation. I don't care, I'm real about it. I just want to get better. I don't need people to think I'm a genius, I'm just trying to make some money. Psychologically, to be honest with you, I currently feel beaten down and exhausted. I put a lot of energy into this, and sometimes I work myself physically sick, it's happened multiple times. About once a week, usually Saturday, I get a headache that lasts all day. My body's stress rebound mechanism you might call it. Getting over one of those sick periods now, which is why I barely even traded this week. I know I missed a lot of volatility this week and some A+ setups but I really just don't give a shit lol. I just currently don't have the mental capital, I think anyone who's been day trading every day for a year or more can understand what I mean by that. I'm still being productive though. Again, I'm not here to present an image of some badass trader, just keeping it real. To give something 100% day after day while receiving so much resistance, it takes a toll on you. So a break is necessary to avoid making bad trading decisions. That being said, I'm progressing more and more and eliminating those lesser quality trades and identifying my bad habits. I take steps to control those habits and strengthen my good habits such as having a solid routine, doing review and market research, taking profits at the right times, etc. So maybe I can give some advice to some that are new to day trading, those who are feeling lost, or just in general thinking "...What the fuck..." I thought that every night for the first 6 months lol. First of all, manage expectations. If you read my story of how I came to be a trader, you can see I had a false impression of trading in many aspects. Give yourself a realistic time horizon to how progress should be made. Do not set a monetary goal for yourself, or any time-based goal that is measured in your P/L. If you tell yourself, "I want to make X per day, X per week, or X per year" you're setting yourself up to feel like shit every single day when it's clear as the blue sky that you won't reach that goal anytime soon. As a matter of fact, it will appear you are moving further AWAY from that goal if you just focus on your P/L, which brings me to my next point. You will lose money. In the beginning, most likely, you will lose money. I did it, you'll do it, the greatest Paul Tudor Jones did it. Trading is a skill that needs to be developed, and it is a process. Just look at it as paying your tuition to the market. Sim is fine but don't assume you have acquired this skill until you are adept at trading real money. So when you do make that leap, just trade small. Just survive. Trade small. get the experience. Protect your capital. To reach break even on your bottom line is a huge accomplishment. In many ways, experience and screen time are the secret sauce. Have a routine. This is very important. I actually will probably make a more in-depth post in the future about this if people want it. When I first started, I was overwhelmed with the feeling "What the fuck am I supposed to DO?" I felt lost. There's no boss to tell you how to be productive or how to find the right stocks, which is mostly a blessing, but a curse for new traders. All that shit you see, don't believe all that bullshit. You know what I'm talking about. The bragposting, the clickbait Youtube videos, the ads preying on you. "I made X amount of money in a day and I'm fucking 19 lolz look at my Lamborghini" It's all a gimmick to sell you the dream. It's designed to poke right at your insecurities, that's marketing at it's finest. As for the bragposting on forums honestly, who cares. And I'm not pointing fingers on this forum, just any trading forum in general. They are never adding anything of value to the community in their posts. They never say this is how I did it. No, they just want you to think they're a genius. I can show you my $900 day trading the shit out of TSLA, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Gamblers never show you when they lose, you might never hear from those guys again because behind the scenes, they over-leveraged themselves and blew up. Some may actually be consistently profitable and the trades are 100% legit. That's fantastic. But again, I don't care, and you shouldn't either. You shouldn't compare yourself to others. "Everyone's a genius in a bull market" Here's the thing.. Markets change. Edges disappear. Trading strategies were made by traders who traded during times when everything they did worked. Buy all the breakouts? Sure! It's the fucking tech bubble! Everything works! I'm sure all those typical setups used to work fantastically at some point in time. But the more people realize them, the less effective they are. SOMEONE has to be losing money on the opposite side of a winning trade, and who's willing to do that when the trade is so obvious? That being said, some things are obvious AND still work. Technical analysis works... sometimes. The caveat to that is, filters. You need to, in some way, filter out certain setups from others. For example, you could say, "I won't take a wedge pattern setup on an intraday chart unless it is in a higher time frame uptrend, without nearby resistance, and trading above average volume with news on that day." Have a plan. If you can't describe your plan, you don't have one. Think in probabilities. You should think entirely in "if, then" scenarios. If X has happens, then Y will probably happen. "If BABA breaks this premarket support level on the open I will look for a pop up to short into." Backtest. Most traders lose mainly because they think they have an edge but they don't. You read these books and all this stuff online telling you "this is a high probability setup" but do you know that for a fact? There's different ways to backtest, but I think the best way for a beginner is manual backtesting with a chart and an excel sheet. This builds up that screen time and pattern recognition faster. This video shows how to do that. Once I saw someone do it, it didn't seem so boring and awful as I thought it was. Intelligence is not enough. You're smarter than most people, that's great, but that alone is not enough to make you money in trading necessarily. Brilliant people try and fail at this all the time, lawyers, doctors, surgeons, engineers.. Why do they fail if they're so smart? It's all a fucking scam. No, a number of reasons, but the biggest is discipline and emotional intelligence. Journal every day.K no thanks, bro. That's fucking gay. That's how I felt when I heard this advice but really that is pride and laziness talking. This is the process you need to do to learn what works for you and what doesn't. Review the trades you took, what your plan was, what actually happened, how you executed. Identify what you did well and what you can work on. This is how you develop discipline and emotional intelligence, by monitoring yourself. How you feel physically and mentally, and how these states affect your decision-making. Always be learning. Read as much as you can. Good quality books. Here's the best I've read so far; Market Wizards -Jack Schwager One Good Trade -Mike Bellafiore The Daily Trading Coach -Bret Steenbarger Psycho-cybernetics -Maxwell Maltz Why You Win or Lose -Fred Kelly The Art and Science of Technical Analysis -Adam Grimes Dark Pools -Scott Patterson Be nimble. Everyday I do my research on the symbols I'm trading and the fundamental news that's driving them. I might be trading a large cap that's gapping up with a beat on EPS and revenue and positive guidance. But if I see that stock pop up and fail miserably on the open amidst huge selling pressure, and I look and see the broader market tanking, guess what, I'm getting short, and that's just day trading. The movement of the market, on an intraday timeframe, doesn't have to make logical sense. Adapt. In March I used to be able to buy a breakout on a symbol and swing it for the majority of the day. In the summer I was basically scalping on the open and being done for the day. Volatility changes, and so do my profit targets. Be accountable. Be humble. Be honest. I take 100% responsibility for every dime I've lost or made in the market. It's not the market makers fault, it wasn't the HFTs, I pressed the button. I know my bad habits and I know my good habits.. my strengths/ my weaknesses. Protect yourself from toxicity. Stay away from traders and people on forums who just have that negative mindset. That "can't be done" mentality. Day trading is a scam!! It can certainly be done. Prove it, you bastard. I'm posting to this particular forum because I don't see much of that here and apparently the mods to a good job of not tolerating it. As the mod wrote in the rules, they're most likely raging from a loss. Also, the Stocktwits mentality of "AAPL is going to TANK on the open! $180, here we come. $$$" , or the grandiose stories, "I just knew AMZN was going to go up on earnings. I could feel it. I went ALL IN. Options money, baby! ka-ching!$" Lol, that is so toxic to a new trader. Get away from that. How will you be able to remain nimble when this is your thought process? Be good to yourself. Stop beating yourself up. You're an entrepreneur. You're boldly going where no man has gone before. You've got balls. Acknowledge your mistakes, don't identify with them. You are not your mistakes and you are not your bad habits. These are only things that you do, and you can take action necessary to do them less. It doesn't matter what people think. Maybe they think you're a fool, a gambler. You don't need their approval. You don't need to talk to your co-workers and friends about it to satisfy some subconscious plea for guidance; is this a good idea? You don't need anyone's permission to become the person you want to be. They don't believe in you? Fuck 'em. I believe in you.
T3 Newsbeat Live is run by Mark Melnick, a 20-year veteran trader from New York. According to him, he made his first million at the age of 19 during the dot-com boom back in the late 90s. He claims that his trading room is the fastest growing trading room at T3 and also the Wall Street’s #1 trading room. You can see this in the description of his videos on Youtube. He is a big proponent of reaching the highest win rate possible in trading. He openly shares some of his trading strategies in free videos and claims that some of his strategies are batting over 70% or even 80 %. He also often says that some of the members enjoy a win rate over 90% using his strategies. I will let you be the judge of this. Self-Promotion He makes a lot of videos to attract new people into his trading room. His daily videos are uploaded on Facebook and Youtube almost daily even on Weekends (mostly excluding Friday evening & Saturdays). In so many videos you’d hear him talking about how his trading room has an edge over other trading rooms while bashing other trading rooms as a whole. He often talks about how his trading room bought stocks/options at the near bottom or shorted at the near top using his “algorithmic analysis” which can be applied to all markets (stocks, future, forex, crypto). Piques your curiosity, right? In fact, that’s how I got to give his trading room a try. “Who in the hell wouldn’t want to catch the top & bottom in the markets, right?” So, you would think people in his room and himself are making a killing using his algorithmic analysis? Not so fast… (in fact, his algorithmic analysis is just drawing trendlines and identifying the most probable support and resistance) When it works (of course, nothing works 100% of the time), you are able to catch just few cents off the top and bottom when it works if you follow his trade. However, you have no idea how long you’d have to hold your position. Mark doesn’t know either. So, he usually goes for nickels and dimes and rarely holds a position longer than 5 minutes. Even if he’s good at picking bottoms and tops, you’d often risk more than nickels and dimes just to make nickels and dimes. Make sense, right? ……. ……. ……. Also, because he gets out of his positions fast, he misses out on riding some potentially big trades. Oh, how I wish stay in that position a bit longer. He doesn’t say but one can surmise that he often leave too much on the table. Of course, it’s important to take your profit fast when you scalp but you consistently leave too much on the table like he does, one has to wonder if he has any system for taking profits (otherwise, it’s all discretionary guessing). This type of bottom/top picking is not his main strategy, though. The strategy that makes him the most amount of money might surprise you. I will get to this later. How Mark Trades (Mark’s Trading Setups and Strategies) Mainly, he scans the market in the morning for earnings reports, analysts’ upgrades/downgrades and other catalysts that have potential to make moves in the market. He openly shares his mockery or insult of analysts, calling certain analysts “idiots” or “imbeciles”. He puts on his first trade(s) early in the morning (from 9:30AM to 10:00AM Eastern Standard Time) when the market move is the most volatile. Some of his strategies use market order during this period of volatile time using options. You can see why this can be very risky and especially on thinly traded options with side spread. He does point out this but sometimes you hear people in the room stuck in an options position that they can’t get out. Just like his trades from calling the top/bottom of a stock, he gets in and gets out of a position within minutes if not seconds while going for nickels and dimes while staring at 1minute and 5-minutes charts. That applies to most, if not all of his strategies. (Yes, sometimes he does catch bigger moves than nickels and dimes.) When you trade during the most volatile time in the morning, you’re subjected to wild moves in both directions. If you’re overly prudent or inexperienced in trading, your stop (unless very wide), has a very high chance of hitting. A lot of times it might stop you out and go in the direction that you predicted. So, when you’ve been trading during this time, you’d probably don’t set a stoploss order or a hard stop to avoid getting fleeced. You do have to be proactive at cutting your loss as quickly as possible. Otherwise you’d find yourself scrambling to get out your position while the bid keeps dropping. I have to say that Mark is very cautious and he does get out of trades very fast if he has doubt. A lot of times he lets out exhausting, heavy sighs and even murmurs some swear words when things don’t seem to go the way he wants in a trade. Besides calling certain analysts, “imbeciles” and “idiots”, this is quite unprofessional but no one in the room has the gut to point things out like this. The irony is that he is the “head of trading psychology” at T3 and it doesn’t seem like that he doesn’t have much control over his trading psychology and let alone his emotion. People in trading chatrooms, like a herd of sheep, as a whole exhibit herd mentality. Even in an online chatroom, you don’t often see someone ruffling feathers and say what they really want to say. This is probably because of the certain amount of people believing whatever he says without questioning the validity and quality of his comments. He has several strategies and according to him all of them have win rate over %70. However, he also comes up with new strategies as often as every month. He either comes up with new strategy or tweaks his existing strategies. According to him, the reason is that the market is always evolving and you need to constantly adapt yourself to the ever-changing market environment. What do you think? Does this sound like someone with an edge? And for someone who scalps for nickels and dimes, he claims to have the highest Sharpe Ratio that he has ever seen in the industry. I’m NOT making this up. He often utters remarks like “My Sharpe Ratio is one of the highest I’ve seen in my twenty-year trading career.”, “I want to create a of traders with a very high Sharpe Ratio. How can you achieve a high Sharpe Ratio when you scalp all the time? And let’s not even talk about commissions generated from frequent scalping. Who cares about commissions when you can be a scalper with high Sharpe Ratio? Now, I want to talk about something controversial about his most profitable strategy. Chatters According to him, he makes the most amount of money using what he calls “Chatters”. He admits he bets on this kind of trades heavily. His chatter trades are based on the “newsflow” of big funds making a move in certain stocks and piggybacking on the same trade before others catch on. No one knows how he exactly gets his “newsflow” and he doesn’t give a straight answer when asked. Maybe he pays a lot for this kind of information or maybe it’s given to him for free. Who knows? But it makes sense. The name of the room is Newsbeat Live. Without this the name wouldn’t be the same. This is probably the only real edge that he has and it’s understandable that he doesn’t want to reveal how he get this kind of newsflow and from where. By joining his trading room he’ll make a callout on these trades for you to take advantage of. In order to do this kind of trade, you have to be very quick on your trigger finger. Almost always the initial move is done within a couple of minutes, if not seconds. If you get in late, you find yourself a sucker buying at or near the top. Also, because you want to get in as soon as you hear his “chatter” announcements, he advised people to get in within 5 seconds of each chatter announcement and use market order to get in. He said that if he had a small account, he’d bet 100% on this kind of “high-octane” chatter trades and get in and get out fast for “easy” money. This was how chatter trades were done …Until one they when many people got burned badly. Back in September or October of 2019, a lot of people in the room lost a lot money because they market ordered call options contracts on a chatter trade. The spread on that trade was something like BID: 0.5 ASK: 5.00 few seconds after he announced it. I didn’t take that trade. No way, I’m going to buy something that has a spread like that. If you’ve been trading options you know that this kind of spread can happen. Many people that day in the room marketed-in on the trade, taking the offer at ASK. They found themselves buying at $5.0 per contract when someone probably bought the same contract at $0.40 or $0.50 just few seconds ago. Someone walked away with decent profits on that trade. This was the biggest trading chatroom fiasco I’ve ever seen. People in the room grieving and throwing numbers of how much they had just lost. 10K, 20K, 30K and even $60K. Could it be also that someone who lost more and didn’t want to talk about it because it’d hurt too much? And how embarrassing to talk about such a loss. I give credit to people who spoke up about it. People were obviously distressed and what did Mr. Mark Melnick do at this moment? Initially, he didn’t say much. But what he said he was going to walk away from the trading desk to clear his mind. It took a while for him to come back and he mentioned that it hurt him a lot that people lost a lot of money and encouraged people not to hesitate to contact him. I don’t think he ever said anything about that he made a mistake insinuating to load up on chatter trades. No apology since everyone who took the trade did it at their own risk. He advised people to reach out to their broker and do whatever it takes to get their trades annulled because the market makers in that trades were despicable crooks and evil. But let’s get one thing clear. Perhaps the cold hard truth. Since Mark is the one who announces chatter trades. he basically frontruns everyone who gets in on these trades after him. There were times when he doesn’t take his own chatter trades and lets the room have it. But when he does, it’s a guarantee win for him. He has some sycophantic followers in his trading room and these people are always hungry for chatter plays. I can imagine drooling over the idea of next chatter trades. It’s human to naturally seek the least path of resistance and this type of trade requires no skill but having fast trigger finger and a platform that allows fast execution. By taking his chatter trades, you are most likely to make money as long as you act fast to get in and get out. The thing is, you don’t know when it’s exactly the next chatter trade is going to happen. If you take a bathroom break, you just miss it. If you take a phone call or answer a door bell, you just missed it. So, it requires you to be glued to your monitor(s) if you want to make the most of your subscription. So, we went over Mark’s most profitable strategy. But wait we haven’t yet to talk about his overnight swing trades. Mark’s Swing Trades His overnight swing trades jokes. Yes, jokes. A lot of his overnight trades are done just before earnings announcements when implied volatility is at the highest. You’ve ever bought a call option just before earnings, predicted the right direction but only to find out that you still lost money next morning? This is because of the implied volatility crush post earnings. A lot of people new to options don’t know this and get taken advantage by veterans this way. I don’t know if Mark knows or not but I witnessed him buying options this way. I think he understand the concept of implied volatility but why he gets on such trades is a mystery. I haven’t exactly checked the result of all of his swing trades but I wouldn’t be surprised if people lost more money following his swing trades than anything in the room. Final Word Mark offers “free-consultation” on the phone for people who struggle in their trading. He said that he takes a lot of phone calls but often you’d get the feeling that he is distracted, unable to give an undivided attention for his consultation. “How would you like to get on a free consultation with a millionaire scalper who can take your trading to the next level?” Appealing isn’t it? But would you want to get on the phone with someone who is going to give a consultation, even if he or she is distracted? Oh, it’s a free consultation. Ok, why not? What do I got to lose? In his videos, you’d hear him saying that he cares for everyone in his trading room and considers them as part of his family. And he runs the trading room out of his good heart and intention more than making money. Besides he says that he makes more money from his trading than running the room. My suggestion is that you have a look and you’d be the judge. He does hold “open house” for his trading room from time to time. Also, I believe that if you try his trading room for the first time, you try it for a month for about $50. As for me, he’s just another front runner using his trading room to profit with a bad sense of humor and exaggeration that make you cringe.
So generally I see a lot (and I mean A LOT) of forex scalpers and day traders. Sure the daily profit may be good and you may hit a jackpot here and there, but in the longer run it is hard to keep this up for average traders like you and me. If you are an idiot like me who likes to put all his eggs in one basket the risk-profit trade off is going down the gutter. So over the past month or so I decided to change my style after reading a book by Kostolany. Spot the longer trends and just wait and wait and wait and wait until a nice buying opportunity comes to you. I've tried it on US t-notes and Eurobonds for practice and turned a handsome profit with a high probability. And now I am here to play big games with options. I bought put options for EuUSD couple days ago after noticing imminent breakout. For now it seems to be going well. If you are an autist like me who can't day trade properly try my method. Peace!
Hi everyone, 20 year old from Alberta here (canadian citizen). I was a victim of fraud via scam online and this happened in December of 2019. It was my fault totally - just admitting it from the start but I was really hoping someone could provide me with legal advice so that I could reduce my losses or find a better path to resolving this issue. It was via instagram, I got a message from someone claiming to be a forex trader in America and he apparently had a surplus/overflow of funds on his forex account which he needed to place in other places (sorry for the lack of technical terms and knowledge). He would do this when I provided him my information (access info so log in information to my ATB account - this wasn't my main account and had no funds so I thought it wouldnt be as much of a risk because there wouldnt be money in the account that he could take). He would deposit cheques via mobile deposit (he had access to my account) and then I would withdraw the money from the ATB atm machine, and there 5 deposits of 1500 overall and I would get to keep like 200 dollars (the deposits were in 20 dollar bills) and I would send the rest to him via whatsapp through STEAM gift cards. Basically I, the idiot, fell for this and sent him this money. A few days after ATB called me and told me that the cheques were withdrawn and that I had to return all the money ASAP. (I almost had a heart attack when I heard this). Anyways I went into the branch and they were quite helpful but explained that I was responsible for the total amount since I withdrew the money - they told me to file a police report against him which would ensure that the blame was not placed on me (since these are fraudlent cheques which were stolen from a company called lennex or something - by that guy). Now they are proposing that I sign a restitution agreement in which I would be 100% responsbile for paying $7534 in installments of 100 dollars. I know I was incredibly stupid for falling for this but I was wondering if there is such a mechanism to forgiveness or reducing of this amount? The only thing which I have been able to convince them of is to reduce my monthly payments (installments) because originally I said I could pay 400 dollars a month. I am a student and I work a part time minimum wage job - not making excuses for stupidity or lack of sense but it is quite crushing financially to have to pay this much on top of student debt. It would mean a lot to me if someone could help me and explain what my options are, i any. Every dollar counts and makes a difference and I did not want to sign the actual restitution agreement until I was aware of all my options. It would take an entire summer's work of full time work to pay this, or in other words, an entire year's worth of tuition fees. Thank you so very much.
Ok you skank hoe. I hope you the gene pool good and drink chlorine and bleach
Okay you $2 las Vegas slut. I hope you do the freaking Gene pools son of a b**** run when I was trying to call up to vent you're stupid idiotic low grade $5 wearing hoe just drink some chlorine and bleach and do the gene pool is some good you little b**** I probably won't talk to you for a while because when I called up it was to vent and what instead was you being an abusive little s*** go fuc yourself and shove you pathetic cheesy ass want to be boyfriend over a railing to you c*** Never every see that I have no motivation again you f****** s*** how do you install a favor and go to hold an electrical wire wall standing in water you son of a b**** take your cheesy ass want to be business that didn't why eat after you broke it and been a boring little punk b**** to get where you are and shove it up your ass shove it so far up your f****** ass that you'll smell text Isotoner for the rest of your natural life which I hopefully isn't all that long you self-entitled cow/ Never f****** minimize my issues you little s*** go fuc yourself stick to Forex inside of a power outlet hold on real tight with your mouth better yet shove it up your ass god knows it's fake and enough! enough.
This is most likely going to sound quite idiotic to the majority of you on here, but i’m a 19 year old and for the past 2 years i’ve been trying to learn as much as I can about trading, I started with forex which I now see as a stupid decision but somehow considering the volatility of the exchange markets I stuck to it, now I currently use MT4 to analyse the existing stock market patterns and I stay away from forex as i’d rather learn more before jumping back into the deep end, as a fan of technical analysis I know that I should incorporate more of the fundamentals, I missed out on quite a few opportunities because of this for example the recent Disney stock spiking by over 10% due to the release of their new streaming platform and amassing well over 10M Users in the first couple of days. To summarise the point i’m concluding to, what are the literal BASICS of algo trading, as someone who’s only recently heard of the term, are there any websites out there to help me educate myself on it? I ask for your opinions as well, do you reckon I should stay with regular trading for now, or at least carry on with it but still try and learn about algorithmic trading?
Strat for 50 - 100% a Year - Common Points, Example of Setup 3 and First Weeks Results.
Part 1 Part 2 We're going to start this post with dealing with common heckles. Some people have heckled me already in this posting series. I know from having done things like this publicly a few times before there are catchphrase heckles to be dealt with, and we'll do this one and for all here. If I've linked you here, you've done a FMH (Frequently Made Heckle). If you're not a heckler, you can skip the line break for the strategy stuff, but this section may still be interesting for you. FMH 1 : Elliot wave does not work all the time. I know. The clock in my living-room does not work all the time. If it tells me it's 2am and I look out and it's broad day light, I use some discerning judgement based on my experience of looking out of a window, and I suspect it may be incorrect. If it tells me it's 8.30am and I look out and see little kids with school bags walking past the window, I suspect the clock may have a point. When I write all the rules and exceptions in my posts, I am not doing this to make the posts longer. These are rules and exceptions designed to describe situations when it probably is happening. Of course it does not "Always work". I am not say it does. Your assumption I have not thought through the same extraordinary simplistic, "But, what if ...." questions is either you under estimating me, over estimating you, or both. FMH 2 : Fibs levels do not work, studies show it is as good as random. Two points. Firstly, I've read some of these studies. These hypothetical things done by people who have never traded in the market and want to produce intellectual ideas about it. While reading through the method of the experiment it's apparent to me it won't work. I could save them some time if they call me and tell me their hypothesis; "Nope. You'll lose about 20% a year doing that. Good general idea. Okay starting point, but you get fucked here, here and here. Work on that". I will not value the opinion of someone paid to write papers on fibs over my experience being paid to trade them. I will not go out my way to try to get you to value my opinion. I've learned people will either test things I say and know the truth of them for their selves with me posting the amount of interesting evidence/results that I do, and others would not test it if I posted a million examples. Point two. Not perfect does not mean not practical. Fib levels do not react absolutely perfectly. I suspect the reason for this is so many people use them to put stops behind these days. In days gone by, they were probably more accurate, but as stop clusters became more predictable and concentrated this change. Game theory sort of stuff. Read more about my thoughts on this here. The thing is, for those who pay enough time and attention, there are patterns of when the fibs either do work very well, or "do not work" in the exact same way over and over again. If they do "not work" in the same way over and over, that's the same as working to me. I am looking for patterns to trade for profit. Not to compile a pretty chart of data points as to if price turned specifically on the 61.8 over a million samples. FMH 3 - "Everything you're saying is wrong", "You're an idiot", "I am non-specifically and non-constructively disagreeing" (Yeah, people drop that last one, verbatim, all the time) Pics, or it didn't happen. I am willing to "get up here" so to speak and succeed or fail in front of everyone. I'm posting what I do, and explaining all my rational. Results are being tracked. Time and continuity will display my outcomes. Is there a way you suggest you can provide stronger proof I am wrong that I am proposing to prove I am right? If you're just saying you think I am stupid, because you know the market so much better than me my standard reply is as follows; " If you'd like to propose, explain and track a strategy you think will outperform this we can both keep our records and that will best determine who's opinions have profitability. It seems something that would be good for the community. " Pics or it didn't happen. Only analysts and economists are paid for opinions. My job demands a far more practical approach. FMH 4 - "What REALLY happened with (insert news related thing) this and your guesses were just lucky". If I said it would happen yesterday, then set trades for it happening and profited from them today; it does not matter to me the reason you give me for it tomorrow. If you choose to view the market as being like this, you may. If it ever does start to become more relevant to me making profits or not, I will pay attention to other things. Right now, I do not follow them closely and that has never mattered. Either I am consistently lucky, physic or right. Pick the flavor for you. I will not engage in conversation on any of these points coming from a closed minded perspective. By which I mean you only commenting to tell me why you're right. If you feel someone has to add balance with these comments, go ahead. I encourage people to be scientific in their approach and having different viewpoints helps with this. Do your own experiments. I will answer honest questions, and will gladly engage people who disagree with me and do so from the perspective of personal study. Usually we can both learn and teach if both of us have firsthand knowledge. This is rare, but enjoyable. ================================================================================================== On to GBPUSD. As I said may be possible in the previous post, the trade for the bigger run up post Chicago was missed. This can happen. It's better to miss bad opportunities than squander good money on bad ones, and at the time I had the option of entering, there was no way to tell the difference between these - so I did nothing. Later in the day price continued to be consistent with the formations of a spike pattern. Here I engaged the market. GBPUSD 1 Minute My entering pattern was to first open two small trades with a 13 pip stop. This was an emergency stop, I always planned to tighten it up (it'd only hit in the event of an immediate capitulation). The risk here was about 0.15%. When the market moved a bit lower, I entered more positions and having more data felt better about where to place stops. All stops went to 6 pips or less (bigger position, same starting risk). As price reached the best level, I opened my largest trade. Stop went from 3 - 6 pips with big stops being 2 pips. Effective stop something like 3-4 pips. Targets hit for 10 - 12 pips, giving an effective pay off on risk just short of 1:3. I do not use aggressive position sizing in this part of the trade (usually it already carries made profits), so the net risk was low. Around 0.25%. Net gain in positions was 0.6%. GBPUSD 1 min From left to right the positions get bigger. Notice also the biggest position (low) takes profit a good bit before where I forecast the high (bulk close). This trade hitting should give assurance of breakeven on this trade, so the risk on capital is gone on this trade on a double top move, then profits accumulated in the breakout. Results for the day; https://preview.redd.it/96zq7cy1j9i31.png?width=821&format=png&auto=webp&s=d324348621a5c0931a90de207fe8aebb116f934d Current Gain = 0.65% Max risk exposure possible - 0.4% Max real equity drawdown - < 0.2% Due to not being entirely available for trading today this was a big under-performance of what the strategy could have achieved. It's been a decent example day to show the logistics of how the trades can form. To make 2 - 3% today with the same draw-down was possible.
Quit Quick! TL:DR - If it's even possible you will quit, do it early. Otherwise, succeed. No matter what. Commit, or quit. The markets are no place for part timers or hobbiest. The hard stats here are 3/4 of you will not make it. The ones that do, are going to take a lot of shit from the market before you do. If you are not going to be as determined to succeed in 5 years of failing as you are starting, quit quick. Save yourself the hassle. If you think you're going to get it quick ... you're not. You might 'get it' a little bit, but then be smashed by market changes that you have no experience of. Early success in trading can be like building sand castle at the tideline. You're putting it together and it looks great, then whooosh, and you're starting again. Even if you read all the books, attend all the courses, have personal training .... whatever. For you to be able to stand on your own two feet in the markets is going to take some time. There is an eliment of 'snakes and ladders' to it that is just inherent in aiming to build wealth (or produce ROI) on a speculative skill. I am not saying this because I want you to quit. I want you to succeed. What I do not want to see is you quitting in 4 years time. Lots of people take over 5 years to learn this. Some 10. You want to get a payoff on that investment of time and effort, so make sure you will stick it out for that time. Be all in, or be out. There is no shame in noticing early trading is not for you. It is technically and mentally hard. It is not a natural skill, it takes some rewiring to do it. Do Not Assume People Know More Than You TL;DR - A lot of people know less than they appear to/think. Even if you a very new. They often do not. People often repeat what they have heard. Some people think popularity is the same as profitabiliy .... we call these people "poor with statistics". Reality is, most people do not know how to make money. They are telling you what others said (and who knows where they got it?). Worse than this, is there are people who think they know a lot. I think about the dumbest point in my trading carreer was once I got a few years in and thought I knew everything. The more you think you know, the less you probably do. These people often talk down at newbies, which can make it seem like they are smarter. Appearances are not always what they seem. Do not assume you know more than people, either. Both are equally foolish. You do not know what people know, and since whatever you think you know may later change, you do not fully know what 'think' you know now. Just hold the conclusions you draw to a high standard of proof, and look for others demonstrating their own conclusions with similar high standards of proof (not chatter). Lose Money TL;DR - You're going to anyway, get good at it. "Say what?????". Yeah! Lose some money. Don't be a fucking baby. You are going to lose money at some time. If you take the time to read the stories of highly successful traders, you will see we all bust. Exceptionally few do not. The ones who have the worst busts are the ones who start out winning. You need to know how to lose. It is better to learn this losing a grand or so than a million. When losing, we end up facing the urges to produce a panic (or revenge) sort of responce ... which will epicly fuck up everything. You need to learn to feel this burn, and still make the logical choice. Good judegement will come from bad judgement. Two things humans really dislike generally speaking are losing money and being wrong. Forex will give you a whole lot of both of them. You're probably going to have to make adaptions to your thinking patterns to be able to deal with this. [Action point: Read "Trading in the Zone"] Observe Others Strategies TL;DR - Watching other people trading opens up new perspectives. Both winning and losing ones have their purposes. Make sure however you are observing them you can see the actual trades on a chart. So you can see specifically what is done (not just results or what is said). Personally I done this watching managed accounts. I learned a lot from it. From highly profitable ones, I learned traits of the 'trader brain'. I seen how they protected equity, and siezed opportunities. Their strategies had structure and rational. It could be seen to be repeatable and the trades became predictable - and I could see why that made sense to do. From losing ones, I got to look into a mirror of mistakes I made. When you see someone else doing dumb shit, it is more obvious it is dumb shit than when you do the same 'stuff'. I would say I learned the most from the accounts that were unprofitable. (Note, if doing this make sure you use copy trading or MAM. Never PAMM. Due to technical allocation differences in trades, PAMM accounts do not yield the information you need) Other examples of this are following signals services. Signals services are frowned upon here in this sub. I've noticed. These services are not 'useless' - it depends on how well they are used. There are many free ones, you can trade demo accounts to follow them. If you think you can not learn from bad traders, fair enough. People can. If you think there are not more skilled people than you doing this (anywhere!), you're 99.99% probability wrong. Learn to Discard, Without IgnoringTL;DR - Have a critical mind. No information is useless, and as such should not be called 'bad'. Much information is incorrect. You have to learn how to assess information and test it for yourself. Never let what others say influence the trades you make when you are testing strategies (remember, people disagreeing can be good. 20/80 success rate ... do we want 100% agreement?) Everything we think we know should always be preliminary, and this means information we get we should use to re-check conclusions from information we have previous gleamed. For you to do this well it is important you have solid conclusions of your own, which you do not get from being a recievetransmitter of others opinons. There is a fine balance to this. You have to be open to new ideas, without being whimsical in your conclusions. Do not accept information as true just because a lot of people say it is. Always hunt for the why, and be careful to seperate what are opinons from what are facts. Take time to learn all the popular opinions. Then look for people who give unique insights and ideas outside of (or tweaking) they opinions - they may have rare information, because they have evidendly done self study. [Action point: Write down all the things you think are true about trading, work on getting answers as to why they are true, or accept they are unproven] Put a Value on the Skill TL;DR - Become clear on the expected reward for your efforts. Not enough people do this. What is the skill of trading worth to you in dollar value over your expected lifetime trading? Since trading can be a tough and time consuming thing to learn, you should be clear on the reward of it. Personally, this 'carrot on the stick' is what's pulled me through the hardest times. The value of the skill depends on how you want to use it. I value it over $100 million. People may think this is hype, but I do not have any "How to make $100 million" training courses to sell. That's what it is worth to me, and it will remain worth that irrespective of if it is believed. This is not saying I have made over $100 million, just the skill I consider to be worth at least that having worked to obtain it. If you are someone who wants to make a lot of money and thinks the numbers I am saying are hype. Numbers like $5,000 - $10,000 a month even seeming unrealistic - get yourself around different people! These are 'easy' numbers if you have good skills. If you get yourself into the top 15% (which is not all that hard if you remember breakeven beats 80%) you have an ability to do something almost no one can do, yet almost everyone wants. It's valuable. This has been the most motivating factor for me in trading. I've seen real examples of people making millions (a year) because they have honed in a skill. I've also seen complete idiots getting into positions where they could easily make themsevles a million (maybe more than once), but then fuck it up ... because it's easier to pretend to have the skill (or think you have) than actually have it. So from early on I have always had a framework in which I knew learning to trade (really well) would make me millions. This has given me an attitude of "closer to it now than I've ever been" ... no mather how devistatingly bad things may have went.
Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Basic tutorial of the Forex MetaTrader 4 Platform (Part 1)---The very beginning-Part 1 - Duration: 8:57. iLuvTrading 289,699 views. 8:57. Forex for Beginners. MetaTrader 4. Day traders love day trading and they also love making stupid mistakes. Here's my frustration with this industry. Day traders lifestyle, 10 monitors, graphs ... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Learn how to get started trading and utilize this easy strategy that'll make you consistently profitable in the quickest way possible! This video will take y... Start Here: http://successempires.com Forex stands for “Foreign exchange” which means that foreign currencies are being traded. The Foreign Exchange market i...