Forex Backtesting: The A-Z Guide to Backtesting Your Strategy

Algorithmic Trading

A place for redditors to discuss quantitative trading, statistical methods, econometrics, programming, implementation, automated strategies, and bounce ideas off each other for constructive criticism. Feel free to submit papers/links of things you find interesting.
[link]

What data to use for backtesting a Forex algo?

Hi,
I am developing a Forex algo and have done so with 1-minute candle data. For simplicity sake I take the average (mid-price) of the bid/ask-close, bid/ask-low and bid/ask-high and feed these into the algo. This means that the algo buys and sells using the bid/ask-close average.
Now, I know this ignores the "cost" of the spread and since it is a HF algo this cost becomes very significant. However, I recently found out about ECN brokerages that say they offer 0-0.1pips of spread and only take a commission.
My question thus is, what kind of data should I use for backtesting my algo. The candle data I use now has an average spread of 1.4 pips (between bid-close and ask-close).
Should I find data quoting a lower spread? Or are these lower spreads not realistic?
In addition to the question above... Is using the bid-close and ask-close of 1-minute candle date reasonable to use as a price at which the algo can buy and sell or is this not realistic in a live environment.
Thank you so much
submitted by marnixhoh to algotrading [link] [comments]

Metatrader Forex Indicator | Visual Backtesting – Historical Data

Metatrader Forex Indicator | Visual Backtesting – Historical Data submitted by IntraQuotes to u/IntraQuotes [link] [comments]

How to derive historical financial data for forex instrument backtesting

Hello,
If you believe backtesting strategies for forex major currency pairs is unhopeful please leave a comment with an explanation.
I'm a CS major at Columbia with internships in back office global bank infrastructure positions here in NY and have great interest in trading algorithmically because I can't trust my behavior to enter trades, among other obvious reasons.
I would like to know what the best sources are for obtaining historical data (OHLCV, etc) for (forex) backtesting purposes. Is a large excel file used in practice, or are historical prices derived via API's? It seems that I need to pay after some research online, but I know you redditors can deliver.

edit
I found a free source here for EURUSD. There are other pairs available too.
submitted by Reciprocates to algotrading [link] [comments]

How to acquire Tick and Bar data for backtesting in 2019 [Stocks, Forex, and Crypto Currency]

How to acquire Tick and Bar data for backtesting in 2019 [Stocks, Forex, and Crypto Currency] submitted by finance_student to algorithmictrading [link] [comments]

Forex backtesting - Tick data vs 1M data?

Hi,
Like most here, I’ve been working on building a strategy that best suits my trading style.
Basically - I trade on both the M15 and H4 charts for mainly EURUSD.
I’ve used mainly excel formulas to backtest my strategies - using 1M data downloaded from Histdata.com
When forward testing my data on a demo account - results are virtually the same. (I mean in Excel, my EA will open/close trade at the same time for the same profit as my EA will when it live trades on MT4.)
I see many people on this forum talking about tick data and its importance. I’m basically asking if I should be using tick data instead of 1M data in my backtests? Is it necessary and why is that? If my Excel formulas are showing the exact same results as my live forward testing, can I just keep using Excel?
Thank you for the help!
submitted by Hahathatssocool to algotrading [link] [comments]

Looking for feedback/marketing advice/people willing to test out a windows app i'm making for backtesting

Hi all, a trader friend convinced me to try building an app to automatically download historical forex data for backtesting purposes. It lets you specify what symbols you're interested in, and tries to get 9 years of data, automatically updating it into excel files (one per day plus a few files with a year, 2 years, 5, etc). Would love someone to check it out and let me know if it works and any suggestions for marketing it! I'm not a software company, just a developer.
FWIW I asked the mods for permission first!
submitted by chrisfromsydney to ASX_Bets [link] [comments]

Broker Recommendations for HFT in Canada

As the title says, I’m looking for broker recommendations for high frequency trading in Canada.
I’m open to recommendations based on anything, whether it’s rates for live market data, commission fees, access to historical data for backtesting, or whatever else you feel makes the broker competitive.
Looking to trade forex and stocks.
submitted by magnifia to algotrading [link] [comments]

Forex Trading Strategies

Hello!
Newbie here, just wondering what your thought processes are when it comes to creating a trading plan. I understand that failing to plan is a recipe for disaster, and I wanted to get some ideas on how to get started.
I'm interested in swing trading and position trading, as I don't have enough time to spare to look at charts all day.
Your feedback is greatly appreciated!
submitted by InfidelsUnited101 to Forex [link] [comments]

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submitted by ViralMedia007 to FREECoursesEveryday [link] [comments]

I Automated & Backtested ParallaxFX Strategy

I am a Software Engineer / Data Scientist and I decided to give a go at automating a strategy based on the ParallaxFX strategy floating around and backtests the results, also due to some inspiration by Vanguer
 
I backtested on the majors 4H timeframe between January 2015 to January 2020.
 
I am only considering trades from the top and bottom bands for now.
 
My trading criteria is:
 
Upper Band
Indecision candle
Setup candle
 
Lower Band
Indecision candle
Setup candle
 
Entry: 38.2 Fib
Stop Loss: 100 Fib
Take Profit: -161.8 Fib
RRR: 3.23
 
If a candle meets my trade criteria I open the trade and forget about it.
 
I started with a balance of 500 EUR and a risk of 1%. The results use compound gain / loss and I only considered one currency pair at a time.
 
The results were not that impressive...
EUUSD
AUD/USD
GBP/USD
NZD/USD
USD/CAD
USD/CHF
 
Due to this being automated I can test a variety of parameters pretty quickly and come back with trading screenshots, results, etc.
 
I am considering a higher timeframe but the number of trades is already fairly low.
 
Here is a link to a Google Drive (https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/16cO0ZSCGakkbK90lh-FBIC3ZJIxOj9fI?usp=sharing) with screenshots from each trade and a log of the system as it makes the trades. The candles highlighted in yellow / purple are where the trade is entered. I do not have the picture marked as a win / lose but it should be obvious by the candle formation.
submitted by TribeFX to Forex [link] [comments]

2.5 years and 145 backtested trades later

I have a habit of backtesting every strategy I find as long as it makes sense. I find it fun, and even if the strategy ends up being underperforming, it gives me a good excuse to gain valuable chart experience that would normally take years to gather. After I backtest something, I compare it to my current methodology, and usually conclude that mine is better either because it has a better performance or the new method requires too much time to manage (Spoiler: until now, I like this better)
During the last two days, I have worked on backtesting ParallaxFx strategy, as it seemed promising and it seemed to fit my personality (a lazy fuck who will happily halve his yearly return if it means he can spend 10% less time in front of the screens). My backtesting is preliminary, and I didn't delve very deep in the data gathering. I usually track all sort of stuff, but for this first pass, I sticked to the main indicators of performance over a restricted sample size of markets.
Before I share my results with you, I always feel the need to make a preface that I know most people will ignore.
Strategy
I am not going to go into the strategy in this thread. If you haven't read the series of threads by the guy who shared it, go here.
As suggested by my mentioned personality type, I went with the passive management options of ParallaxFx's strategy. After a valid setup forms, I place two orders of half my risk. I add or remove 1 pip from each level to account for spread.
Sample
I tested this strategy over the seven major currency pairs: AUDUSD, USDCAD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, EURUSD, USDCHF. The time period started on January 1th 2018 and ended on July 1th 2020, so a 2.5 years backtest. I tested over the D1 timeframe, and I plan on testing other timeframes.
My "protocol" for backtesting is that, if I like what I see during this phase, I will move to the second phase where I'll backtest over 5 years and 28 currency pairs.
Units of measure
I used R multiples to track my performance. If you don't know what they are, I'm too sleepy to explain right now. This article explains what they are. The gist is that the results you'll see do not take into consideration compounding and they normalize volatility (something pips don't do, and why pips are in my opinion a terrible unit of measure for performance) as well as percentage risk (you can attach variable risk profiles on your R values to optimize position sizing in order to maximize returns and minimize drawdowns, but I won't get into that).
Results
I am not going to link the spreadsheet directly, because it is in my GDrive folder and that would allow you to see my personal information. I will attach screenshots of both the results and the list of trades. In the latter, I have included the day of entry for each trade, so if you're up to the task, you can cross-reference all the trades I have placed to make sure I am not making things up.
Overall results: R Curve and Segmented performance.
List of trades: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7. Something to note: I treated every half position as an individual trade for the sake of simplicity. It should not mess with the results, but it simply means you will see huge streaks of wins and losses. This does not matter because I'm half risk in each of them, so a winstreak of 6 trades is just a winstreak of 3 trades.
For reference:
Thoughts
Nice. I'll keep testing. As of now it is vastly better than my current strategy.
submitted by Vanguer to Forex [link] [comments]

Backtesting python recommendations ?

I am doing a bunch of work in Jupyter notebooks with tensforflow. Have some background in AI but new to trading. I am looking at backtesting frameworks like backtrader and bt. Backtrader is mentioned in the sub history a bit, but is there some consensus on "the thing to use"?
I started out writing my own and then paused and asked myself why I was investing time in this bit when someone else with more experience had probably already done so.
submitted by HairyBeastMan to algotrading [link] [comments]

Good backtest, bad forward test?

FOREX, DAILY
Backtesting my system last 7 years, 2000 trades. Data was split 75:25 in sample and out of sample, both profitable.
However, when forward testing the algo entered drawdown and is still on its way down.
What could be the reasons why?
submitted by BowsMind to algotrading [link] [comments]

10-19 00:15 - 'I will develop an cryptocurrency trading bot, forex brokers for you' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Idrees_umar removed from /r/Bitcoin within 2-12min

'''
Hello!!
Welcome to my gig are you in search of an MT4 trafing bot developer?
.I will develop a perfect and profitable Arbitrage Trading bot which will make you earn a lot of income.
You have an idea of a trading system and you want to backtest or make it real. You need a guy who'd put it into the code and make all this technical stuff. So let me help you to earn mo.ney.
I HAVE EXPERIENCE IN :
?Crypto Trading bots, Ma.rket ma.ker, Trend following, Arbitrage
?Crypto exchanges API, Binance, Okex, Huobi, KuCoin, etc.
?Stock Trading bots, Strategies based on Indicators
?Brokers API, FXCM, TD Ameritrade
?Telegram API / Email API for notification
?Execute trading signals from Email or Telegram chat
?Building a financial GUI, Grafana
?Cloud servers, AWS, MS Azure, DigitalOcean
?Python, Backend, Git
!!Confidence guarantee. I do NOT share your strategy to third parties.
WHAT I CAN DO FOR YOU:
?develop a Script or WebApp, which able to work 24/7
?build a GUI, Control panel for this bot
?bind it with Telegram bot to control it and get notifications
?backtest your strategy on historical data (Forex or Crypto)
?develop tools for watch
'''
I will develop an cryptocurrency trading bot, forex brokers for you
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: Idrees_umar
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

How reliable are free sources for historical data?

Has anyone used free sources like histdata.com, dukascopy, forexsb to train models or backtest their algos?
I am working on training a model to trade forex pairs. Still experimenting with the idea and don’t want to invest in an data api before I have a solid strategy.
Wondering if I can make use of this data to test the model with this data and move on to test the model with something paid afterwards OR just go with a single data source as best practices would say.
Thanks in advance!
submitted by vikas-sharma to algotrading [link] [comments]

10-16 11:15 - 'I will develop an cryptocurrency trading bot, forex brokers for you' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Idrees_umar removed from /r/Bitcoin within 35-45min

'''
Hello!!
Welcome to my gig are you in search of an MT4 trafing bot developer?
.I will develop a perfect and profitable Arbitrage Trading bot which will make you earn a lot of income.
You have an idea of a trading system and you want to backtest or make it real. You need a guy who'd put it into the code and make all this technical stuff. So let me help you to earn mo.ney.
I HAVE EXPERIENCE IN :
?Crypto Trading bots, Ma.rket ma.ker, Trend following, Arbitrage
?Crypto exchanges API, Binance, Okex, Huobi, KuCoin, etc.
?Stock Trading bots, Strategies based on Indicators
?Brokers API, FXCM, TD Ameritrade
?Telegram API / Email API for notification
?Execute trading signals from Email or Telegram chat
?Building a financial GUI, Grafana
?Cloud servers, AWS, MS Azure, DigitalOcean
?Python, Backend, Git
!!Confidence guarantee. I do NOT share your strategy to third parties.
WHAT I CAN DO FOR YOU:
?develop a Script or WebApp, which able to work 24/7
?build a GUI, Control panel for this bot
?bind it with Telegram bot to control it and get notifications
?backtest your strategy on historical data (Forex or Crypto)
?develop tools for watch
'''
I will develop an cryptocurrency trading bot, forex brokers for you
Go1dfish undelete link
unreddit undelete link
Author: Idrees_umar
submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

(Buy signal) XPDUSD, Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend on Oct 19, 2020

(Buy signal) XPDUSD, Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend on Oct 19, 2020
Over the last three days, Tickeron A.I.dvisor has detected that XPDUSD's AroonUp green line (see chart) is above 70, while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the green line goes above 70 while the red line stays below 30, this is an indicator that the stock could be poised for a strong Uptrend. For traders, this could mean going long the stock or exploring call options in the next month. Tickeron A.I.dvisor backtested this indicator and found 106 similar cases, 95 of which were successful. Based on this data, the odds of success are 90%. Current price 2347.92 is above 2322.75 the highest resistance line found by Tickeron A.I. Throughout the month of 09/23/20 - 10/23/20, the price experienced a +7% Uptrend. During the week of 10/16/20 - 10/23/20, the FOREX enjoyed a +0.97% Uptrend growth.
https://preview.redd.it/cttu3ne0nhv51.png?width=1446&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3253086359da149d4c33367c9a7c80d60269226
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 23, 2020. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XPDUSD as a result. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 25 of 27 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XPDUSD just turned positive on October 21, 2020. Looking at past instances where XPDUSD's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise, Tickeron A.I. shows that in 18 of 19 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +2.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XPDUSD advanced for three days, in 90 of 96 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. Tickeron A.I. detected that in 98 of 106 cases where XPDUSD Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
submitted by tickeron_community to ai_trading [link] [comments]

H1 Backtest of ParallaxFX's BBStoch system

Disclaimer: None of this is financial advice. I have no idea what I'm doing. Please do your own research or you will certainly lose money. I'm not a statistician, data scientist, well-seasoned trader, or anything else that would qualify me to make statements such as the below with any weight behind them. Take them for the incoherent ramblings that they are.
TL;DR at the bottom for those not interested in the details.
This is a bit of a novel, sorry about that. It was mostly for getting my own thoughts organized, but if even one person reads the whole thing I will feel incredibly accomplished.

Background

For those of you not familiar, please see the various threads on this trading system here. I can't take credit for this system, all glory goes to ParallaxFX!
I wanted to see how effective this system was at H1 for a couple of reasons: 1) My current broker is TD Ameritrade - their Forex minimum is a mini lot, and I don't feel comfortable enough yet with the risk to trade mini lots on the higher timeframes(i.e. wider pip swings) that ParallaxFX's system uses, so I wanted to see if I could scale it down. 2) I'm fairly impatient, so I don't like to wait days and days with my capital tied up just to see if a trade is going to win or lose.
This does mean it requires more active attention since you are checking for setups once an hour instead of once a day or every 4-6 hours, but the upside is that you trade more often this way so you end up winning or losing faster and moving onto the next trade. Spread does eat more of the trade this way, but I'll cover this in my data below - it ends up not being a problem.
I looked at data from 6/11 to 7/3 on all pairs with a reasonable spread(pairs listed at bottom above the TL;DR). So this represents about 3-4 weeks' worth of trading. I used mark(mid) price charts. Spreadsheet link is below for anyone that's interested.

System Details

I'm pretty much using ParallaxFX's system textbook, but since there are a few options in his writeups, I'll include all the discretionary points here:

And now for the fun. Results!

As you can see, a higher target ended up with higher profit despite a much lower winrate. This is partially just how things work out with profit targets in general, but there's an additional point to consider in our case: the spread. Since we are trading on a lower timeframe, there is less overall price movement and thus the spread takes up a much larger percentage of the trade than it would if you were trading H4, Daily or Weekly charts. You can see exactly how much it accounts for each trade in my spreadsheet if you're interested. TDA does not have the best spreads, so you could probably improve these results with another broker.
EDIT: I grabbed typical spreads from other brokers, and turns out while TDA is pretty competitive on majors, their minors/crosses are awful! IG beats them by 20-40% and Oanda beats them 30-60%! Using IG spreads for calculations increased profits considerably (another 5% on top) and Oanda spreads increased profits massively (another 15%!). Definitely going to be considering another broker than TDA for this strategy. Plus that'll allow me to trade micro-lots, so I can be more granular(and thus accurate) with my position sizing and compounding.

A Note on Spread

As you can see in the data, there were scenarios where the spread was 80% of the overall size of the trade(the size of the confirmation candle that you draw your fibonacci retracements over), which would obviously cut heavily into your profits.
Removing any trades where the spread is more than 50% of the trade width improved profits slightly without removing many trades, but this is almost certainly just coincidence on a small sample size. Going below 40% and even down to 30% starts to cut out a lot of trades for the less-common pairs, but doesn't actually change overall profits at all(~1% either way).
However, digging all the way down to 25% starts to really make some movement. Profit at the -161.8% TP level jumps up to 37.94% if you filter out anything with a spread that is more than 25% of the trade width! And this even keeps the sample size fairly large at 187 total trades.
You can get your profits all the way up to 48.43% at the -161.8% TP level if you filter all the way down to only trades where spread is less than 15% of the trade width, however your sample size gets much smaller at that point(108 trades) so I'm not sure I would trust that as being accurate in the long term.
Overall based on this data, I'm going to only take trades where the spread is less than 25% of the trade width. This may bias my trades more towards the majors, which would mean a lot more correlated trades as well(more on correlation below), but I think it is a reasonable precaution regardless.

Time of Day

Time of day had an interesting effect on trades. In a totally predictable fashion, a vast majority of setups occurred during the London and New York sessions: 5am-12pm Eastern. However, there was one outlier where there were many setups on the 11PM bar - and the winrate was about the same as the big hours in the London session. No idea why this hour in particular - anyone have any insight? That's smack in the middle of the Tokyo/Sydney overlap, not at the open or close of either.
On many of the hour slices I have a feeling I'm just dealing with small number statistics here since I didn't have a lot of data when breaking it down by individual hours. But here it is anyway - for all TP levels, these three things showed up(all in Eastern time):
I don't have any reason to think these timeframes would maintain this behavior over the long term. They're almost certainly meaningless. EDIT: When you de-dup highly correlated trades, the number of trades in these timeframes really drops, so from this data there is no reason to think these timeframes would be any different than any others in terms of winrate.
That being said, these time frames work out for me pretty well because I typically sleep 12am-7am Eastern time. So I automatically avoid the 5am-6am timeframe, and I'm awake for the majority of this system's setups.

Moving stops up to breakeven

This section goes against everything I know and have ever heard about trade management. Please someone find something wrong with my data. I'd love for someone to check my formulas, but I realize that's a pretty insane time commitment to ask of a bunch of strangers.
Anyways. What I found was that for these trades moving stops up...basically at all...actually reduced the overall profitability.
One of the data points I collected while charting was where the price retraced back to after hitting a certain milestone. i.e. once the price hit the -61.8% profit level, how far back did it retrace before hitting the -100% profit level(if at all)? And same goes for the -100% profit level - how far back did it retrace before hitting the -161.8% profit level(if at all)?
Well, some complex excel formulas later and here's what the results appear to be. Emphasis on appears because I honestly don't believe it. I must have done something wrong here, but I've gone over it a hundred times and I can't find anything out of place.
Now, you might think exactly what I did when looking at these numbers: oof, the spread killed us there right? Because even when you move your SL to 0%, you still end up paying the spread, so it's not truly "breakeven". And because we are trading on a lower timeframe, the spread can be pretty hefty right?
Well even when I manually modified the data so that the spread wasn't subtracted(i.e. "Breakeven" was truly +/- 0), things don't look a whole lot better, and still way worse than the passive trade management method of leaving your stops in place and letting it run. And that isn't even a realistic scenario because to adjust out the spread you'd have to move your stoploss inside the candle edge by at least the spread amount, meaning it would almost certainly be triggered more often than in the data I collected(which was purely based on the fib levels and mark price). Regardless, here are the numbers for that scenario:
From a literal standpoint, what I see behind this behavior is that 44 of the 69 breakeven trades(65%!) ended up being profitable to -100% after retracing deeply(but not to the original SL level), which greatly helped offset the purely losing trades better than the partial profit taken at -61.8%. And 36 went all the way back to -161.8% after a deep retracement without hitting the original SL. Anyone have any insight into this? Is this a problem with just not enough data? It seems like enough trades that a pattern should emerge, but again I'm no expert.
I also briefly looked at moving stops to other lower levels (78.6%, 61.8%, 50%, 38.2%, 23.6%), but that didn't improve things any. No hard data to share as I only took a quick look - and I still might have done something wrong overall.
The data is there to infer other strategies if anyone would like to dig in deep(more explanation on the spreadsheet below). I didn't do other combinations because the formulas got pretty complicated and I had already answered all the questions I was looking to answer.

2-Candle vs Confirmation Candle Stops

Another interesting point is that the original system has the SL level(for stop entries) just at the outer edge of the 2-candle pattern that makes up the system. Out of pure laziness, I set up my stops just based on the confirmation candle. And as it turns out, that is much a much better way to go about it.
Of the 60 purely losing trades, only 9 of them(15%) would go on to be winners with stops on the 2-candle formation. Certainly not enough to justify the extra loss and/or reduced profits you are exposing yourself to in every single other trade by setting a wider SL.
Oddly, in every single scenario where the wider stop did save the trade, it ended up going all the way to the -161.8% profit level. Still, not nearly worth it.

Correlated Trades

As I've said many times now, I'm really not qualified to be doing an analysis like this. This section in particular.
Looking at shared currency among the pairs traded, 74 of the trades are correlated. Quite a large group, but it makes sense considering the sort of moves we're looking for with this system.
This means you are opening yourself up to more risk if you were to trade on every signal since you are technically trading with the same underlying sentiment on each different pair. For example, GBP/USD and AUD/USD moving together almost certainly means it's due to USD moving both pairs, rather than GBP and AUD both moving the same size and direction coincidentally at the same time. So if you were to trade both signals, you would very likely win or lose both trades - meaning you are actually risking double what you'd normally risk(unless you halve both positions which can be a good option, and is discussed in ParallaxFX's posts and in various other places that go over pair correlation. I won't go into detail about those strategies here).
Interestingly though, 17 of those apparently correlated trades ended up with different wins/losses.
Also, looking only at trades that were correlated, winrate is 83%/70%/55% (for the three TP levels).
Does this give some indication that the same signal on multiple pairs means the signal is stronger? That there's some strong underlying sentiment driving it? Or is it just a matter of too small a sample size? The winrate isn't really much higher than the overall winrates, so that makes me doubt it is statistically significant.
One more funny tidbit: EUCAD netted the lowest overall winrate: 30% to even the -61.8% TP level on 10 trades. Seems like that is just a coincidence and not enough data, but dang that's a sucky losing streak.
EDIT: WOW I spent some time removing correlated trades manually and it changed the results quite a bit. Some thoughts on this below the results. These numbers also include the other "What I will trade" filters. I added a new worksheet to my data to show what I ended up picking.
To do this, I removed correlated trades - typically by choosing those whose spread had a lower % of the trade width since that's objective and something I can see ahead of time. Obviously I'd like to only keep the winning trades, but I won't know that during the trade. This did reduce the overall sample size down to a level that I wouldn't otherwise consider to be big enough, but since the results are generally consistent with the overall dataset, I'm not going to worry about it too much.
I may also use more discretionary methods(support/resistance, quality of indecision/confirmation candles, news/sentiment for the pairs involved, etc) to filter out correlated trades in the future. But as I've said before I'm going for a pretty mechanical system.
This brought the 3 TP levels and even the breakeven strategies much closer together in overall profit. It muted the profit from the high R:R strategies and boosted the profit from the low R:R strategies. This tells me pair correlation was skewing my data quite a bit, so I'm glad I dug in a little deeper. Fortunately my original conclusion to use the -161.8 TP level with static stops is still the winner by a good bit, so it doesn't end up changing my actions.
There were a few times where MANY (6-8) correlated pairs all came up at the same time, so it'd be a crapshoot to an extent. And the data showed this - often then won/lost together, but sometimes they did not. As an arbitrary rule, the more correlations, the more trades I did end up taking(and thus risking). For example if there were 3-5 correlations, I might take the 2 "best" trades given my criteria above. 5+ setups and I might take the best 3 trades, even if the pairs are somewhat correlated.
I have no true data to back this up, but to illustrate using one example: if AUD/JPY, AUD/USD, CAD/JPY, USD/CAD all set up at the same time (as they did, along with a few other pairs on 6/19/20 9:00 AM), can you really say that those are all the same underlying movement? There are correlations between the different correlations, and trying to filter for that seems rough. Although maybe this is a known thing, I'm still pretty green to Forex - someone please enlighten me if so! I might have to look into this more statistically, but it would be pretty complex to analyze quantitatively, so for now I'm going with my gut and just taking a few of the "best" trades out of the handful.
Overall, I'm really glad I went further on this. The boosting of the B/E strategies makes me trust my calculations on those more since they aren't so far from the passive management like they were with the raw data, and that really had me wondering what I did wrong.

What I will trade

Putting all this together, I am going to attempt to trade the following(demo for a bit to make sure I have the hang of it, then for keeps):
Looking at the data for these rules, test results are:
I'll be sure to let everyone know how it goes!

Other Technical Details

Raw Data

Here's the spreadsheet for anyone that'd like it. (EDIT: Updated some of the setups from the last few days that have fully played out now. I also noticed a few typos, but nothing major that would change the overall outcomes. Regardless, I am currently reviewing every trade to ensure they are accurate.UPDATE: Finally all done. Very few corrections, no change to results.)
I have some explanatory notes below to help everyone else understand the spiraled labyrinth of a mind that put the spreadsheet together.

Insanely detailed spreadsheet notes

For you real nerds out there. Here's an explanation of what each column means:

Pairs

  1. AUD/CAD
  2. AUD/CHF
  3. AUD/JPY
  4. AUD/NZD
  5. AUD/USD
  6. CAD/CHF
  7. CAD/JPY
  8. CHF/JPY
  9. EUAUD
  10. EUCAD
  11. EUCHF
  12. EUGBP
  13. EUJPY
  14. EUNZD
  15. EUUSD
  16. GBP/AUD
  17. GBP/CAD
  18. GBP/CHF
  19. GBP/JPY
  20. GBP/NZD
  21. GBP/USD
  22. NZD/CAD
  23. NZD/CHF
  24. NZD/JPY
  25. NZD/USD
  26. USD/CAD
  27. USD/CHF
  28. USD/JPY

TL;DR

Based on the reasonable rules I discovered in this backtest:

Demo Trading Results

Since this post, I started demo trading this system assuming a 5k capital base and risking ~1% per trade. I've added the details to my spreadsheet for anyone interested. The results are pretty similar to the backtest when you consider real-life conditions/timing are a bit different. I missed some trades due to life(work, out of the house, etc), so that brought my total # of trades and thus overall profit down, but the winrate is nearly identical. I also closed a few trades early due to various reasons(not liking the price action, seeing support/resistance emerge, etc).
A quick note is that TD's paper trade system fills at the mid price for both stop and limit orders, so I had to subtract the spread from the raw trade values to get the true profit/loss amount for each trade.
I'm heading out of town next week, then after that it'll be time to take this sucker live!

Live Trading Results

I started live-trading this system on 8/10, and almost immediately had a string of losses much longer than either my backtest or demo period. Murphy's law huh? Anyways, that has me spooked so I'm doing a longer backtest before I start risking more real money. It's going to take me a little while due to the volume of trades, but I'll likely make a new post once I feel comfortable with that and start live trading again.
submitted by ForexBorex to Forex [link] [comments]

My Trading Systems- How I trade.

How to analyse which stock to buy? You could use something simple like Moving Average Crossover or your system could be something very complex.
I generally use 5-7 setups when I trade.
The reason is, a lot of times I get false signals on one setup, but when I compare it with the Macro, when 3/5 systems give buy signal, I buy.
When 3/5 systems give me a sell signal, I sell. DISCLAIMER- I only trade in stocks, so some setups may not be available in Forex.
  1. Price Action Trading.
I believe that price action alone is the single greatest system. The more indicators you use, the more messy your chart gets. For me, less is more.
I usually start buy drawing Support and Resistance zones /areas, the immediate zones and long term zones.
Then I plot Fibonacci Points. I love Fibs. This alone is enough to trade.
  1. Heikin Ashi + Stochastic RSI.
The Heikin Ashi candlestick reduces noise and gives good signals. The rules are simple, if there are two continuous green closed candles, it's a buy signal and vice versa.
I usually add Stochastic RSI to improve the success rate, but the number of signals reduce.
  1. Volume.
Volume precedes price. Volume can tell a lot of things about the strength of a trend. I also use a VMA, volume moving average.
I find out if the trend is backed by a volume or not. I look for divergences too.
  1. Divergence.
There are two types of divergences, simple and hidden. I use RSI and/or MACD to find divergence. It's very reliable.
The drawback is that divergence works better in higher time frame.
I usually use 1D chart to plot divergence. Another thing, A divergence doesn't mean that the trend will change immediately.
  1. Delivery % Analysis.
This isn't available for Forex. There's a whole type of analysis on this. It has nothing to do with charts. It's based on numbers.
I like to add numbers along with charts to improve my success rate.
There are a common scenarios and 4 hidden scenarios in this analysis.
  1. Index Correlation.
If the index goes up 2% and the stock is correlated, and it goes up 4%, I can conclude using backtested data that the stock is dependent on the index.
If the index falls a bit, the stock will also fall, much more than the index.
Then there are stocks that have no correlation with the index, or inversely correlated.
  1. Option Chain.
This is probably not available for Forex, I am still learning it. This is a VERY reliable system.
Mastering this will help with get 80-90% accuracy. It's pretty tough.
A single view can give you an entire picture of support and resistance zones and what's happening. Are new positions being created or hedged?
Other Setups.
  1. Moving Averages- 20 & 200 day EMA or the EMA channel.
  2. Sector Performance.
  3. Bollinger Bands using channel.
I can talk deeply about all the systems with examples. But I've just tried to mention everything in brief.
-Vikrant C.
submitted by Vikrantc2003 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

How I trade.

How to analyse which stock to buy? You could use something simple like Moving Average Crossover or your system could be something very complex.
I generally use 5-7 setups when I trade.
The reason is, a lot of times I get false signals on one setup, but when I compare it with the Macro, when 3/5 systems give buy signal, I buy.
When 3/5 systems give me a sell signal, I sell. DISCLAIMER- I only trade in stocks, so some setups may not be available in Forex.
  1. Price Action Trading.
I believe that price action alone is the single greatest system. The more indicators you use, the more messy your chart gets. For me, less is more.
I usually start buy drawing Support and Resistance zones /areas, the immediate zones and long term zones.
Then I plot Fibonacci Points. I love Fibs. This alone is enough to trade.
  1. Heikin Ashi + Stochastic RSI.
The Heikin Ashi candlestick reduces noise and gives good signals. The rules are simple, if there are two continuous green closed candles, it's a buy signal and vice versa.
I usually add Stochastic RSI to improve the success rate, but the number of signals reduce.
  1. Volume.
Volume precedes price. Volume can tell a lot of things about the strength of a trend. I also use a VMA, volume moving average.
I find out if the trend is backed by a volume or not. I look for divergences too.
  1. Divergence.
There are two types of divergences, simple and hidden. I use RSI and/or MACD to find divergence. It's very reliable.
The drawback is that divergence works better in higher time frame.
I usually use 1D chart to plot divergence. Another thing, A divergence doesn't mean that the trend will change immediately.
  1. Delivery % Analysis.
This isn't available for Forex. There's a whole type of analysis on this. It has nothing to do with charts. It's based on numbers.
I like to add numbers along with charts to improve my success rate.
There are a common scenarios and 4 hidden scenarios in this analysis.
  1. Index Correlation.
If the index goes up 2% and the stock is correlated, and it goes up 4%, I can conclude using backtested data that the stock is dependent on the index.
If the index falls a bit, the stock will also fall, much more than the index.
Then there are stocks that have no correlation with the index, or inversely correlated.
  1. Option Chain.
This is probably not available for Forex, I am still learning it. This is a VERY reliable system.
Mastering this will help with get 80-90% accuracy. It's pretty tough.
A single view can give you an entire picture of support and resistance zones and what's happening. Are new positions being created or hedged?
Other Setups.
  1. Moving Averages- 20 & 200 day EMA or the EMA channel.
  2. Sector Performance.
  3. Bollinger Bands using channel.
I can talk deeply about all the systems with examples. But I've just tried to mention everything in brief.
submitted by Vikrantc2003 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

My Trading Systems - How I trade.

How to analyse which stock to buy? You could use something simple like Moving Average Crossover or your system could be something very complex.
I generally use 5-7 setups when I trade.
The reason is, a lot of times I get false signals on one setup, but when I compare it with the Macro, when 3/5 systems give buy signal, I buy.
When 3/5 systems give me a sell signal, I sell. DISCLAIMER- I only trade in stocks, so some setups may not be available in Forex.
  1. Price Action Trading.
I believe that price action alone is the single greatest system. The more indicators you use, the more messy your chart gets. For me, less is more.
I usually start buy drawing Support and Resistance zones /areas, the immediate zones and long term zones.
Then I plot Fibonacci Points. I love Fibs. This alone is enough to trade.
  1. Heikin Ashi + Stochastic RSI.
The Heikin Ashi candlestick reduces noise and gives good signals. The rules are simple, if there are two continuous green closed candles, it's a buy signal and vice versa.
I usually add Stochastic RSI to improve the success rate, but the number of signals reduce.
  1. Volume.
Volume precedes price. Volume can tell a lot of things about the strength of a trend. I also use a VMA, volume moving average.
I find out if the trend is backed by a volume or not. I look for divergences too.
  1. Divergence.
There are two types of divergences, simple and hidden. I use RSI and/or MACD to find divergence. It's very reliable.
The drawback is that divergence works better in higher time frame.
I usually use 1D chart to plot divergence. Another thing, A divergence doesn't mean that the trend will change immediately.
  1. Delivery % Analysis.
This isn't available for Forex. There's a whole type of analysis on this. It has nothing to do with charts. It's based on numbers.
I like to add numbers along with charts to improve my success rate.
There are a common scenarios and 4 hidden scenarios in this analysis.
  1. Index Correlation.
If the index goes up 2% and the stock is correlated, and it goes up 4%, I can conclude using backtested data that the stock is dependent on the index.
If the index falls a bit, the stock will also fall, much more than the index.
Then there are stocks that have no correlation with the index, or inversely correlated.
  1. Option Chain.
This is probably not available for Forex, I am still learning it. This is a VERY reliable system.
Mastering this will help with get 80-90% accuracy. It's pretty tough.
A single view can give you an entire picture of support and resistance zones and what's happening. Are new positions being created or hedged?
Other Setups.
  1. Moving Averages- 20 & 200 day EMA or the EMA channel.
  2. Sector Performance.
  3. Bollinger Bands using channel.
I can talk deeply about all the systems with examples. But I've just tried to mention everything in brief.
submitted by Vikrantc2003 to IndianStockMarket [link] [comments]

Conflicting BTCUSDT historical Data from Pinned Post

Hi all. I followed the pinned instructions on how to download historical btc data, but I am seeing a discrepancy. I pulled minute data from August and compare recent ticks to binanance.com and the data is different as you can see in the screenshot below. Has anyone experience this before?

https://preview.redd.it/c1cdrfni1ng51.png?width=1048&format=png&auto=webp&s=13d6e884cee0a9e40367fd474060fac9a5d681d6
submitted by RobsRemarks to algotrading [link] [comments]

How I BACKTEST a Forex Trading Strategy in 2020 - YouTube BACKTEST LIKE A PRO (MetaTrader 4) - YouTube Tutorial [Forex Trading] How to backtest a trading ... How to Backtest Trading Systems, Part 1 - YouTube Forex Tester 3 - How To Setup A Project And Back Test How to BACKTEST a Forex Trading Strategy - YouTube Forex Tester 4 Quick Start Guide for Backtesting - YouTube

Forex backtesting shows you the validity of your strategy and gives you the information you need to make it better. Even more importantly, it helps you understand your strategy and what you can expect from it. The latter is crucial because no matter how awesome an analyst you become, you will never be able to anticipate the future with certainty. However, if you know what you can expect in the ... If you have heard of Forex backtesting, but always wondered how to do it, then this guide is for you. Just like everything in trading and in life, there is no one-size-fits-all. Backtesting will not work for every trader or every trading system. However, there is nothing that I have seen that has universally helped more people become successful in trading, than backtesting. I consider it vital ... more precise backtesting results: it is extremely important for trading strategies that depend even on small price fluctuations; daily updates: you can even backtest the yesterday’s data; 5-digits historical data ; On top of all these benefits, our VIP data package provides you with the tick-by-tick data with floating spread. By purchasing this package, you receive the most detailed price ... However, if there is third party data that you would like to use, then you can upload that into Forex Tester to. It really is the best solution. TradingView gives you instant access to data from multiple Forex brokers, which is awesome. But you cannot upload your own data, so that's why it's at number 2. Usability for Manual Backtesting. Forex ... Forex backtesting software is a type of program that allows traders to test potential trading strategies using historical data. The software recreates the behaviour of trades and their reaction to a Forex trading strategy, and the resulting data can then be used to measure and optimise the effectiveness of a given strategy before applying it to real market conditions. BacktestMarket provides high quality historical financial data for backtesting and analysis purpose. Intraday data for Metatrader, Ninjatrader and many other trading platforms What is Backtesting in Forex? In forex, backtesting is when you apply historical currency pair price data to your strategy to evaluate and gauge the effectiveness of the strategy. The assumption behind backtesting is that what worked in the past can also work well in the future. This means that if a strategy is profitable based on past market conditions, there’s a chance that it will be ...

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How I BACKTEST a Forex Trading Strategy in 2020 - YouTube

Forex Tester 3 is the new release of a top notch back testing software. You can test multiple currency pairs and multiple trading strategies using up to 15 years of FREE historical data. This video will show you How to Backtest a Forex Trading Strategy, as well as 3 TIPS on BACKTESTING... Trading Platform I Use: https://www.tradingview.com/... Learn the fastest way to start backtesting with Forex Tester 4. Try the free Forex Tester 4 demo here: https://tradr.cc/fxt In this video, I'll show you how ... Today we kick off #TheTradingEssentials Series, starting out with How I Backtest a Forex Trading Strategy in 2020... ----- Trading Platform I Use: https:... FREE: Advanced Pattern Tutorial - https://www.thetradingchannel.net/optinpage CHECK OUT: EAP Training Program - https://goo.gl/7RrMM5 JOIN: "Advanced Pattern... Get more information about IG US by visiting their website: https://www.ig.com/us/future-of-forex Get my trading strategies here: https://www.robbooker.com C... BACKTEST LIKE A PRO (MetaTrader 4) In this video, I share how you can create expert advisers to facilitate backtesting your Forex trading strategy. That is d...

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